THE Philippine population may balloon to 142 million by 2045, based on projections of the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA).
“This increase in numbers would take place even if the average annual growth rate is projected to decline significantly, from 1.73 percent during 2010-2015 to 0.65 percent during 2040 to 2045,” it said, noting that the population grew by 1.9 percent annually from 2000 to 2010.
Meanwhile, the graying of Filipinos is expected to continue over the projection period. In 2010, the number of people aged 60 years or more comprised 6.7 percent of the total population. This group is projected to account for about a tenth of the total population in 2025 and about one-sixth in 2045.
Meanwhile, the proportion of those aged 65 years and over, which was 4.3 percent in 2010, is estimated to increase to 6.5 percent in 2025, and to 11.4 percent in 2045. The proportion of children aged 0-14 years is projected to fall, however.
In 2010, for every three persons in the population, one belonged to the age group 0-14. By 2045, the corresponding proportion would be one in five.
The percentage of children under five years of age is estimated to decrease rapidly, from 11.6 percent in 2010 to 6.7 percent in 2045, a 42 percent reduction in 35 years.
The working-age population—15 to 64 years—accounted for more than three-fifths of the total population, (62 percent ) in 2010, but will comprise more than two-thirds (67.5 percent) by 2045.
Women in the child-bearing ages, 15 to 49 years, who made up about a quarter of the total population (25.7 percent) would account for a similar proportion (24.9 percent) in 2045.
An economist, Nicholas Antonio Mapa, said while the country’s demographic dividend may benefit the economy in the future, its positive impact can be offset by a certain law that the government is implementing at present.
Mapa, an associate economist at the Bank of the Philippine Islands,
added that much of the country’s growth can be attributed to demographic dividend, or the accelerated economic growth that may result from a decline in mortality and fertility and the subsequent change in the age structure of the population.
“[Demographic dividend] is what will fuel our growth in the coming 15 years . . . but because of the RH bill and affluence, we may lose this edge. This may lead to slower economic growth and the Philippines will lose one of its competitive advantages,” he said, referring to the Reproductive Health (RH) Law.