Brian Soden

Dr. Soden explains that, starting on the shortest time scale, we can predict the weather, such as temperature and rainfall, out to about seven days. Beyond that, the atmosphere becomes too noisy to accurately predict the weather for a particular day. However, we can predict changes in the probability of different weather types or climate conditions for decades into the future. For example, even though the temperature on a particular day cannot be predicted beyond about a week, we can say that (in temperature climates) summers will be warmer than winters due to the increase in the amount of energy from the sun. Similarly, increasing the amount of greenhouse gases also warms the earth by increasing the net amount of energy flowing into the climate. In this way, scientists can make predictions of how the climate will change for decades into the future.

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