Private economists see lower inflation until ‘14

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Private economists in the country are seeing a lower inflation rate this year until 2014, a Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) survey said.

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“Results of the BSP’s survey of private economists for September 2013 yielded generally lower but still broadly within target inflation forecasts for 2013-2015,” the central bank stated in its 2013 Third Quarter Inflation Report.

According to the September 2013 Consensus Economics inflation forecast survey, the mean inflation forecasts for 2013 and 2014 went down to 2.9 percent from 3.1 percent and 3.5 percent from 3.6 percent, respectively, while the inflation forecast for 2015 was steady at 3.6 percent.

The BSP said that analysts expect inflation to be benign due mainly to well behaved global commodity prices.

The monetary authority noted that based on the probability distribution of the forecasts provided by the respondents, there is a 68.2-percent chance that average inflation for 2013 could settle within 2.1 percent to 3 percent.

Meanwhile, the BSP said that there is a 24.8- percent chance that average inflation for 2013 could be within 3.1 percent to 4 percent.

Results of the survey also said that the country showed a lower inflation projection for 2013, but steady inflation forecast for 2014 relative to the June 2013 results.

Respondents expect inflation to average at 3 percent from 3.3 percent in 2013 and 3.8 percent in 2014, it said.

On the other hand, year-on-year headline inflation decreased to 2.4 percent in the third quarter of 2013 from 2.7 percent in the second quarter, bringing the year-to-date average inflation rate to 2.8 percent.

Earlier, the BSP retained its inflation forecast for 2013 at 3 percent, while inflation for 2014 was seen at 3.9 percent. For 2015, the BSP’s inflation forecast was at 3.4 percent.

Inflation targeting is an approach to monetary policy that involves the use of a publicly announced inflation target set by the government, which the BSP commits to achieve over a two-year horizon.

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