The Philippine stock market is seen possibly sustaining its upward trend and breaching the 7,400-point all-time high by yearend if no serious international crisis hits the global markets and the country sustains its positive economic performance throughout the year.
Harry Liu, president of Summit Securities Inc., said in a phone interview that local equities may trade within the 7,200-7,400 range for the rest of the year on the back of positive global market performances and economic numbers domestically.
“It all depends on the US market. If the US and global markets have no crisis, it (the PSEi) is possible to go up to 7,200-7,400,” Liu said.
“I have said earlier that if the market breaches the 7,000-point, then it will surge for the long term given that the market won’t break below 6,650,” he added.
Some analysts said that the market may test the 7,200 mark this week, depending on the second quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures to be released on Thursday.
Besides hopes for the US market to continue its momentum throughout the year, Liu said optimism on the country’s economy and corporate activities are also a factor to the high projections and confidence in the market.
“It depends. But we see more money supply, economic activities, infrastructure projects, addressing of power issues — these are the laborers’ and workers’ demands. And so far, the numbers are good,” Liu said.
“With the proper result of the election spending next year, PSEi may trade within the 7,400 to 8,000 range in 2015,” he added.
Along with election spending, several analysts and fund managers said 2015 will be a good year for the market given the positive projection for corporate earnings and targets for next year.
“We are on an uptrend for the long term, with the possibility of pushing the market up to 8,000 next year as long as we do not break into 6,650 and below,” Liu said.
Most analysts, fund managers and broker firms have also expressed strong confidence in a sustained run up in the PSEi in the months and years ahead.
Earlier, online brokerage firm COL Financial Group Inc. said it expects the market to breach the 7,800 level next year on the back of increased activity in the property, construction, power and banking sectors.
Investment management firm Philequity Management Inc. also sees the benchmark index going up 10 percent yearly to 8,200 by 2016 and 10,000 by 2018 on the good momentum of domestic and international markets.
Philequity said these over-the-top targets may still be revised and may even go higher if there are extraordinary gains or accelerated global and local activities that may boost the market leading to 2018.
On Friday, the PSEi hit its fourth all-time high this year, topping the 7,096.49 close on Wednesday, August 20. The benchmark index rose 36.60 points or 0.52 percent to close at 7,133.09 after hitting an intraday high of 7,141.17, while the wider All Shares index closed up 17.06 points or 0.41 percent at 4,217.55.
Market trading was suspended Monday, August 25, for the celebration of National Heroes Day. Trading resumes today, August 26.