• Pulse Asia survey figures show how Duterte could win in 2016

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    MAYOR Rody Duterte’s recent radio and television interview where he once again repeated the statement that he is too old and that he is not interested to be President has sent shock waves to the millions who have been asking him to lead the country.

    Am I worried? Of course not.

    In the first place, while Rody Duterte has given hints that he may consider the presidency, he has not categorically stated that he won’t run.

    There was nothing new in his “I am not interested” statement given to ABS-CBN and other media outlets. This has been his consistent position.

    But the fact that he has agreed to conduct the “Listening Tour” all over the country to advocate Federalism and feel the pulse of the people on the issues besetting them is an indication that Duterte will in the end yield to the desires of the people.

    Duterte is not running? Not now, of course. It is still too early to even make a categorical declaration of his intention.

    When he does, I believe Rody Duterte will be the country’s next President.

    Here’s why:
    The clamor of the people for him to lead the country is gaining intensity.

    The proof to that was his surprise standing in the recent Pulse Asia survey which showed that he was tied for 3rd and 4th with former President Joseph Estrada.

    This was actually the first time his name has been included in the survey on people’s preference for president.

    If I were Vice President Jejomar Binay, who has declared his intention to run for President five years ago, I would be scared.

    Binay’s 29 percent share of voters’ preference is not a reason to celebrate. It is, in fact, something that he should be worried of.

    Consider these:
    1. Binay has been campaigning since 2008 when he originally intended to run for President but settled for the vice presidential slot to Joseph Estrada;

    2. Binay is the incumbent Vice President and housing Czar and he goes around the country literally campaigning;

    3. In the latest Pulse Asia survey, Duterte, who has consistently said he has no interest to run, jumped in from nowhere to be tied for 3rd and 4th with former President Joseph Estrada at 12 percent.

    4. All the other names included in the survey, except perhaps Grace Poe who garnered 14 percent, Bongbong Marcos who had 6percent, and Mar Roxas who has a dismal 4 percent, will almost definitely not run for President. The three have a total voters’ preference share of 24 percent.

    5. The rest of the names listed have a total share of 32 percent and it is almost certain that aside from a portion of Mayor Estrada’s 12 percent, the voters who expressed preference for them do not like Binay. Theirs are the so-called “protest votes.”

    6. As the chaff is separated from the grains, the supporters of the other presidential prospects who will not throw their hats into the presidential ring, will definitely look for an alternative candidate and it is almost sure that their votes will not go to Binay.

    7. Binay’s national rating of 29 percent is buoyed by a still considerable support from Mindanao where he got 22 percent to Duterte’s 34 percent. As soon as Duterte declares his intention to run for President, expect half of Binay’s 22 percent to disappear as Mindanaoans are expected to grab this once in a lifetime opportunity to send one of their own to Malacañang in the hope that things will change for the better in the resource-rich but conflict-ridden island.

    8. In the re-alignment of preferences after three or four names are left in the Presidential race, Binay’s 29 percent will either remain constant or it may even shrink depending on the resolution of the graft and corruption issues against him and the members of his family.

    9. Duterte, Poe, Marcos and Roxas, should they decide to run for President will benefit most from the elimination of all the other “wannabes” in the presidency who have a total share of 45 percent of voters’ preference based on the recent Pulse Asia survey.

    10. In a four or five-cornered fight for the presidency, Duterte will breeze through all the rest of the others because he will carry the almost solid Mindanao votes and the ethnic votes of the Visayans who also been dreaming of putting back one of their own in Malacanang. In 2016, Duterte will be the next President of the Philippines.

    This is just an analysis based on the statistics provided by the Pulse Asia.

    There is more to be considered why Duterte will win the presidency easily.

    Among all the names being foisted for the presidency, it is only Duterte who carries a message and presents an agenda on how to address criminality, drugs, corruption, the Sabah issue, the West Philippine Sea conflict, the communist insurgency, rural development, food and agriculture and most of all, the Bangsamoro problem.

    Duterte’s record in the fight against crime, corruption and drugs and his reputation to be able to instill discipline in a city of almost 2 million which has been named one of the World’s Safest Cities, appeal to people in Metro Manila who are sick and tired of corruption and crime.

    All the others, including the veteran politician Vice President Binay, rely on motherhood statements which do not provide a definite approach to deal with the country’s problems.

    The Vice President’s ad lines saying “Kay Binay, Gaganda ang Buhay” and “Ganito kami sa Makati…” will not ring a bell in a country beset with serious problems in crime, drugs, lack of food, China’s expansionism, the Bangsamoro issue and the communist insurgency.

    The last factor which would seal the presidency for Duterte is if either Grace Poe or Mar Roxas, given his slim to zero chances of winning the presidency, would agree to be the Vice Presidential candidate to the Davao City Mayor.

    Poe with her 14 percent mass support or Roxas’ well-entrenched and well-oiled political machinery will be icing on the cake.

    When this happens, it will be all over but the voting and the counting.

    As we boxing men say it: “Tapos na ang boksing.”

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    35 Comments

    1. 4 decades more or less, our system of gov. still up and down its depends of the leader maneuver. how can we change if our gov. and people never ever try to taste a new kind of system gov. by under a federalism.

      in the philippines we have a lot of good intelligent politicians here. like merriam,roxas,binay,estrada,caytano ect… poe -she has no really or perfectly- truly- experience in politics battle i think she kind of “going with flow” in terms of politics term. she been in MTRCB what is THAT HUH!!!!! sorry for that. but point is “A CHANGE A NEW CHALLENGE FOR US BY USING FEDERAL SYSTEM”. a person always pursing on these SyStem is A MAYOR ONLY.

      HAVE YOU EVER NOTICE This kind of HOPE AND CHANGE

      FEDERAL FEDERAL FEDERAL..

      if we still worrie about corruption by federal system
      not anymore It will be easy to point out on what state doing badly crazy corruption its easily to identify and file a case to them. unlike NAPOLES n Fake LGU ect… by using our current System which is sometimes hardly to find out who is involve into corruption/// federal i will go

    2. Kong di tatakbo for President c CITY MAYOR WLANG RASON PARA BUMUTO
      I EXACTLY KNOWS HIM . HIS THE BEST LEADER

    3. May nagawa man si Duterte sa Davao iba pa rin kapag urban ang nahawakan mo mas maraming problema at mas challenging para sa taong nakaupo dito. Yan ang napatunayan ni VP. Napalago niya kahit mahirap

    4. Hindi yan mananalo paanong mananalo dahil lang ba sa survey na ginagawa niyo mananalo na agad? kung gawa-gawa niyo lang yan .. Taong bayan ang magdedesisyon para sa ikabubuti ng bansang ito. Hindi kayo

      • Yes Drilon for president. He is good and visionary leader. He walk the talk. The only thing is that he is not so popular among the masses.

      • si Frank Drilon pa ang gusto niyo? Yung issue nga niya tungkol sa DAP nawala ng parang bula ano nakasuhan ba siya? Porket kapartido ng pangulo wla na lang progress? tas yan pa ang gusto niyo sige para lalo tayong bumagsak

    5. In due respect to everyone’s opinion.. everyone is right, but mine is based on facts: As traveller around our nation Luzon, Visayas & Mindanao and around the world… we witnessed the real difference. We witnessed how Davao City is blessed and cleansed from corruption, criminals, drug addicts, drug lords,hold-upers, etc, etc, and make this city one of the top safest city in the world. Performance speaks louder than words, not to brag Mayor Duterte, but in his longest term as mayor, we can’t hear corruption on his governance, only we heard Criminals, drug Lords, individual with police records disappeared or killed.

    6. Tulfotumbong on

      patay tayong lahat pag si binay ay nanalo. siguradong ubos ang kaban ng bayan s a pamilya binay sa lakas kumurakot ng lahat ng miembro nito.

    7. jose btaganahan on

      I prefer former Senator and former PNP Chief Panfilo Lacson over Mayor Rody Duterte for President in 2016. I would vote Lacson because of his sterling record as PNP Chief and as a Senator without a dent of graft and corruption. And Senator Lacson is the only Senator who did not avail of the graft prone Pork barrel which every Senator are entitled to.

      If we want a Lee Kwan Yew in the Philippines, then Panfilo “Ping” Lacson should be our President in 2016.But if Ping Lacson will not run in 2016 and Mayor Duterte will run, certainly I will campaign and vote for Mayor Duterte. NO TO JEJOMAR BINAY!

    8. gil arellano on

      duterte is for federalism,it will divide the country into pieces,it will increase the possibility of political dynasty,it will increase the possibility of war between states

      • United States is a federal form of government. When Tunko Abdul Rahman converted Malaysia into a federal states, their standard of living went up several folds. Gil Arellano’s analysis is only a figment of his imagination.

    9. Agueda Kahabagan on

      I believe in Mayor Duterte when he said that the presidency does not appeal to him. What appeals to him is to further the progress of the nation. He is the only presidentiable who is talking about his tangible and specific plan for the country. His heart is always with the good natured citizens of the country. That is why he is against drug pushers, smugglers, etc. He wants to fight for them. I hope he will rise up to the challenge to be the President of the country. If he will declare he will run for the presidency, we will vote for him.

      • When the former Davao City Mayor Duterte will run for president of our country, he has a concrete proof of his achievement that he can offer to the Filipino citizenry.Look what happened to Davao City now? The city has gained as the 4th most peaceful city around the world.The people of Davao City can always point fingers to Mayor Duterte of the honors. V.P. Binay’s claimed that he molded Makati to its prosperity is wrong. Before he was assigned by Cory to become the OIC Mayor of Makati, The Ayalas have already made it as to what Makati is enjoying now.

    10. I think when Duterte would confirm his candidacy for President, the multi faced
      LPs will jump ship. Philippine politics is like this. They go and side with whoever
      seems to win. right after proclamation, those Trapos will take their oath
      with the winner’s party. We guys shall not be swayed by these corrupt man and women and shall elect the best candidate to lead us for a better Philippines.

    11. Madam Miriam…..angyare? Basta kay madam ako. The best president Phils. will have or will never have.

    12. i believe that Mayor duterte can somehow change the the government in its current track, but the uprooting will be very difficult. given the fact that there will be some TRAPO’s and oligarch’s in the system that that will want him dead for sure before he even step into the limelight.

    13. From all aspiring candidates probably Duterte is the most qualified, sincere, honest and strong Presidentiables. He will be a big factor to lead the country for a safer and better Philippines in the future.

    14. Kahit kailan,hindi nawawala kay mayor duterte ang pagka-sigurista!alam niya hindi ganoon kadali ang pagtakbo,dahil una sa lahat isa lang siyang mayor sa isang malayoong probinsya,at malamang halos higit pa sa kalahati ng population ng pinas ang hindi nakakakilala sa kanya!!
      Gusto ko din siya,isang bagay lang ang iisipin mo!! Saan kumukuha ng pondo, at bakit parang ok lang kay Aquino at LP ni Mar Roxas,
      Masama man isipin isa ito sa plano ni Aquino,na magtatanggol sa kanya kapag wala Na siya!
      May basbas si duterte sa pamilya Aquino at yellow cult!!
      Kaya madidismaya ang umaasang makukulong Si Aquino at maiimbestigahan,dahil hindi yan ang prioridad ni duterte!

    15. It is about time to know first the platform of governance every presidential aspirants can do to the filipino people before giving him or our vote comes election day. A debate on the kind of a platform of governance point by point in every aspect of achieving goals of his or her administration. A matured politics that is what we need before election day arrives. By then we know why we casts our votes to whoever the next Philippine president guided with platform of ggovernment.

    16. For the sake of the Filipino people, Mayor Duterte please run for President. You are the best thing that will happen in 2016. God bless the Philippines!

    17. After all the dirt thrown at Binay, I am surprised why he has maintained his lead. If the same negative campaign is waged against Duterte, his percentages will go negative in 2 weeks time.

    18. I have a simple question for pulse asia, if former President Joseph Estrada is not qualified to run for president again in 2016 why is his name included in every survey of pulse asia because this just dilutes a certain percentage that would go to the real candidates of presidentiables when every survey is conducted. If former President Joseph Estrada can still run as president for 2016 then his name in the pulse asia survey should be included but if he is disallowed under the law then it should not be included anymore in the surveys of pulse asia.

    19. Your analogy is quite right. But in politics in the grand scale like running for Presidency if you don’t have the machinery and money, it will always be a dream. We have not elected anybody yet without M and M. Mayor Duterte plainly said I am not running because he knows the score.

    20. I definitely would go all-out should Duterte run for president. Those people in Manila except for Pnoy are enveloped in corruption like Erap, Gloria Arroyo and especially that crooked thief Binay.

    21. Filipinos should be given the chance to hear all the presidential aspirants in a debate to be telecast nationwide.Aside from the above mentioned platform of government presidential aspirants shoul tackle the Education system of the country, the economy what are best agenda he can aspire for the country,the protection of the country in case there will be an invasion against the treat of CHINA AS AN EXAMPLE AND MANY MORE.

    22. Well said Mr. Pinion. Since I got the idea of Mayor Rudy Duterte about his position for Federalism for the Philippines, I was so excited for him and hope that he’d make himself positive to get into the National Election in 2016 as President. He is the person in whom the country can expect peace and tranquilty. Keep on proding Mr. Pinion adn my greeting: Mabuhay si Mr. President Rodrigo Duterte come 2016
      .

    23. Guillermo Hernandez on

      Sir Manny,

      Your are absolutely right in your analysis !

      Please allow me to add a caveat : Provided he does not run under the Liberal Party banner ……..if he does ,all the idealism that he will bring with him as our President could be overwhelmed by the the corrupt members of the LP. Do you think that these current LP trapos would allow him from giving up their power of usurpation and their ” piggy banks ” Aka pork barrels ?

      • You are absolutely right,as long as he is not running with a VeePee coming from a Liberal Party,he will definetly win the presidency…