• PulseAsia: Poe and Binay No. 1; Duterte, 3rd; Roxas, 4th

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    Those are the poll figures of the latest PulseAsia presidential-preference survey for respondents in the National Capital Region (NCR), which, as I explain below, is the only believable part of this pollster’s most recent report, for its polls conducted January 24 -28.

    For the NCR, Senator Grace Poe-Llamanzares and Vice President Jejomar Binay are statistically tied with 33 percent and 32 percent, respectively. Davao City Mayor Rodolfo Duterte is third with 16 percent, while President Aquino’s man Manuel Roxas 2nd, is fourth with 11 percent.

    The NCR results are very significant by themselves as the region is the country’s political and cultural capital, the information infrastructure of which is the most developed in the country. It is in the NCR that Aquino and Roxas’ intense black propaganda since last year against Binay was mostly disseminated — and obviously failed.

    However, Pulse Asia’s figures from the “Balance of Luzon,” Visayas, and Mindanao are so obviously out of whack and cannot be explained that these can’t be believed, so that Pulse Asia’s national-level figures are without credibility.

    for pulseBased on Pulse Asia’s own figures, how could the following changes have occurred in just a few weeks between its two polling dates, Dec. 4 -11 and Jan. 24- 28, 2016.

    * Llamanzares’ voter-preference jumped 10 percentage points, from 29 percent to 39 percent among respondents in Luzon outside of NCR.

    * Binay lost 14 percentage points in the Visayas region and 16 in Mindanao.

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    One can argue that Llamanzares’ rise in voter-preference was merely due to the fact that she was continually in the news (which therefore improved her name recall) because of the big question whether she would be disqualified for not being a natural citizen, or lacking the 10-year residency requirement, or both.

    Nothing, though, can explain why Binay lost that huge 14 percentage points among Visayan respondents and 16 points in Mindanao. (The Ombudsman announcement on the Binays’  case was made Feb. 5.)

    On the contrary, it is the ratings of Roxas that should have dipped in the days up to Jan. 28, when Juan Ponce Enrile accused Roxas and his boss Aquino of botching up the Mamasapano operation that resulted in 44 Special Action Force troopers being slaughtered. Instead, Roxas’ ratings increased from 17 percent to 21 percent, if one is to believe the Pulse Asia report.

    The purported plunge in Binay’s ratings, combined with some increases for Roxas, had the effect of making it seem that the two and Duterte are statistically tied, which would of course be a dream situation for the cellar-dweller, Roxas.

    How could Binay’s ratings be made to appear to have plunged, while Roxas to have inched upward?

    Only through a clever manipulation of samples for the Balance of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao, especially since there is less homogeneity of people’s perceptions in the provinces compared to Metro Manila, which is actually a melting pot of sorts of people from all over the country.

    For a professional survey, the number of samples for the three regions should be proportional to the voter population per region. But we don’t know if Pulse Asia did that.

    For instance, could it have over-represented Capiz and Negros in its sample for Visayas, and known Liberal Party command-vote areas such as the ARMM for its samples for Mindanao, so that Binay’s ratings plunged 14 percentage points in Visayas and 16 points in the region?

    correction pulse asia

    I’ll believe Pulse Asia if it discloses exactly how its samples are distributed per province in regions other than the National Capital Region. After all, even if Pulse Asia keeps insisting they’re professionals, Aquino’s cousin the clever Rapa Lopa was once its president.

    Voter-preference ratings do not suddenly plunge or rise without reason, especially outside the National Capital Region, where the information infrastructure that determines people’s perceptions is so much more underdeveloped than in metropolitan Manila, and where people’s perceptions change over a longer period of time.

    Having said all these, the polls’ basic flaw, as I have pointed out in previous columns is that they are usually forced-choice surveys, with respondents knowing little of the topic or not having decided yet, in the case of voter-preference polls, but being forced to give a choice anyway.

    Based on international studies, the undecided account for 20 to 35 percent of responses, although in voter preference polls these grow smaller as election day nears.

    The real impact of voter-preference polls, especially in this country, is in terms of the campaign contributions candidates obtain, with the rich proportioning their contributions according to survey results.

    Who would give real money to Roxas, after all, if his ratings have been in the cellar?

    I wouldn’t be surprised if his camp moved heaven and earth to manipulate Pulse Asia’s recent poll, since three months to election day, every sign — including polls by the Social Weather Stations — indicates that the Administration candidate will be buried by a landslide, not only due to people’s anger over his overlord Aquino’s incompetence, but over Roxas’ own bungling, the worst of which was his paralysis as the Special Action Force troopers officially under his command were being massacred in Mamasapano.

    tiglao.manilatimes@gmail.com

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    23 Comments

    1. Beverly M. Hingpit on

      Surveys by Pulse and SWS are manipulated. Duterte is leading. He leads in social media. He is a rock star everywhere he goes. He is very popular to OFW’S. There is a prediction he will win anyway, so no worries. We know the real score. DUTERTE WILL WIN.

    2. CONGRATULATIONS GRACE POE FOR TOPPING AGAIN IN LATEST LAYLO’S SURVEY AND PULSE ASIA SURVEY …WAY TO GO GRACE POE ….

      MAR ROXAS had five years to build that performance he wants
      to be known for. But he squandered it. In all those five years, first as
      secretary of Department of Transportation and Communications and then
      as secretary of Department of Interior and Local Government, Roxas has
      nothing to show. He had everything at his disposal and yet he has no
      performance
      to boast about. He is Mr. Palengke .Mr. Semplang ,Mr. Kargador ,Mr.
      inom sa plato etc , still his survey REMAINS KULELAT ,never topnotcher
      in any survey .He is a certified incompetent ,want to be leader. He is
      allergic to all poor people ,marginalized ,old ,foundlings or orphaned
      people. He is a poor rich man without a backbone. Sorry roxas your money
      can’t buy a President position in the Philippines probably in your
      family business ,you can.

      MABUHAY GRACE POE ,JUST GO,GO AND FIGHT ,FIGHT THOSE EVILS .WE ARE JUST BEHIND YOU AND SUPPORTING YOU ALL THE WAY I N2016 .

    3. False Asia is manipulating the survey to condition
      the mind of the voters. WATCH OUT for massive cheating
      from the camp Of Baluktot na Daan.

    4. We all know that the survey they are conducting are paid by politicians so they can’t come up with a fair survey outcome. I still believe that Binay, Duterte and Santiago on the lead. Poe and Roxas are going down due to many issues associated to them.

      People should just dismiss their surveys as farcical and a joke!

    5. >>> for public information. SWS HIGH RANKING DIRECTORS IS ALSO THE HIGH RANKING DIRECTORS OF PULSE ASIA. and some of them are relatives of the present government officials.

      One thing i would like to ask Mr. Tiglao.
      In what category of business the SWS and Pulse Asia are registered and licensed to operate?
      Are their company business are in lined with the mass media?

    6. The Supreme Court has to work double time to finally decide wether Grace Poe Llamanzares is disqualified or not before the May 09 Election to avoid confusion among the voters

    7. I don’t believe in survey sa dami ng Pilipino ilang Lang ang respondent and yun respondent botante ba Talaga?look noon ngyari Kay Poe Hindi na man Siya number one survey pero nag number one Siya…malalaman natin yan Talaga sa Mayo….

      • survey is fine as along as it is statistically sound and the sample is a representative of the population…though there is a margin f error talaga.

        problem is, they could manipulate the result by bias sampling as pointed out in the article…for a number to rise or fall, they can emphasize sampling in area where it is already known as the candidate’s bailiwick or the other way around.

        for us supporters of our own preferred candidate, we should research more sa mga plataporma nila and not just rely on mainstream media to deliver the news to us kasi obvious naman talaga na bias.

    8. I have long distanced myself from the manipulations of False Asia and SWS polling firms, refusing to be fooled by their brainwashing of gullible minds, especially the uninformed or ‘indifferent’ majority knowing that they operate to serve the selfish purposes of whoever their patrons are. To my mind, their poor credibility is synonymous with the compromised integrity of our National Elections and the results they publish are, in fact, aimed at conditioning the minds of the Filipino electorate to accept the manipulated results of hocus PCOS machines come 2016 elections.

    9. MANIPULATION IS THE NAME OF THE GAME FOR SWS AND PULSE ASIA FOR THE BENEFIT OF MARIMAR BOY SEMPLANG, BOY PICK UP, BOY KARGADOR ROXAS !

    10. MUKHANG ANG MEDYO TOTOONG MALAPIT SA KATOTOHANAN NA RESULTA NG SURVEY ANG YONG SA NCR, DAHIL DITO NGA PINAG-UUSAPAN AT AGAD NALALAMAN ANG MGA MAIINIT NA USAPIN TUNGKOL SA PAGGOGOBYERNO. SANA GAWIN TALAGANG MAKATOTOHANAN HINDI PARANG INIMBENTO LANG.

    11. Tiglao mas magaling ka pa sa Pulse Asia. Make your own survey and interpret they way you want.

    12. ernie del rosario on

      Surveys are sponsors-driven. As simple as that. Top slot for the biggest bidder and for the remaining simple rationing of the shares. All crafted via data doctoring. This industry should be totally banned until a proper independent regulating entity is created and made operational with competent survey scientists running it. Survey methodologies and raw data must be disclosed in all surveys.

    13. You are right Mr. Tiglao…This is part of administration manipulation for election fraud come May 2016

    14. The one solution to this fraud is to stop these survey firms from publishing their survey results in national newspapers. These surveys should be for the consumption only of the party or parties that paid for them. The gullible voters should not be further misled.

    15. Where MetroManila goes the nation goes! If we believe this old adage then the Pulse Asia survey points to a dead heat , a virtual tie between Poe and Binay while Roxas is destined to oblivion and Duterte is just an outsider.The significance of Roxas being a cellar dweller shows that the people is clamoring to kick out the Aquino administration.This scenario makes the vox populi issue more compelling not to disqualify Poe for it will give the presidency to Binay in silver platter, its rabid supporters jumping with joy and our worst nightmare becoming a reality.

      • The unintended result of making Grace run and disqualify her later in the decision on the Motion for Reconsideration is to hand over the Presidency to Bonget – after he is proclaimed as VP. Maybe, that is the game plan of the Crony all along.

      • I beg to disagree. OFWs are between Duterte and Santiago. The North Luzon are for Santiago (because of Marcos) and Duterte (because of OFWs influence to their families back home). Visayas could be split but Santiago could take the lead with Duterte. Mindanao could go to Duterte but some OFWs are for Santiago so their families could give it as well to her. Binay has also strong influence in the visayas and Mindanao. I am sorry but no amount of survey from Pulse and SWS can sway the mind of the people.

    16. If your theory is right, LP could have manipulated the ratings by end of December or early January.