‘Q3 GDP likely slowed to 5.9%’ – Moody’s


The pace of growth of the Philippine economy likely slowed to 5.9 percent in the third quarter of 2014, Moody’s Analytics said in its latest weekly report, comparing the latest period with the second-quarter expansion in gross domestic product (GDP) of 6.4 percent.

The third-quarter estimate was also lower than the 7-percent growth registered in the third quarter of 2013.

“In the Philippines, a slowdown in public infrastructure spending likely curbed third- quarter growth,” Moody’s Analytics, a unit of Moody’s Corp., said.

The latest government data showed that spending on infrastructure and other capital outlays during the period increased only 3.9 percent to P176.2 billion from P169.6 billion a year earlier.

“Industrial production, the best monthly gauge of overall growth, slowed in the three months to September. The Moody’s Analytics tracking model suggests a modest third-quarter slowdown,” it added.

Growth in Philippine manufacturing output slowed sharply in volume and value to the 3-percent levels in September from double-digit rates a year earlier, with more than half of the 20 major sectors posting declines.

The analytical firm is seeing 5.8 percent growth for the country this year, lower than the government’s 6.5 percent to 7.5 percent target range.

The latest Moody’s Analytics forecast is part of its Asia Pacific Preview report, which provides a summary of major economic data due out next week in the Asia Pacific region.

Moody’s Analytics provides expertise in economic and consumer credit analysis, credit research and risk measurement, enterprise risk management and structured analytics and valuation.


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