Showdown looms ahead of Asean talks

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SINGAPORE: A US and Southeast Asian push for a freeze in “provocative” acts in disputed waters has set the stage for a showdown with China at a regional security summit, analysts said.

Recent acts by China, including the positioning of an oil rig in waters also claimed by Vietnam, have alarmed neighbors and Washington ahead of the Asean Regional Forum (ARF) on Sunday in Myanmar’s capital Naypyidaw.

“The US is lobbying for a strong push at the ARF for adherence to international law to keep the situation in the South China Sea peaceful,” according to Australia-based Southeast Asia expert Carl Thayer.

“It will also support a freeze on provocative activities,” he said, adding however that Beijing will likely “take a hard stance on US interference.”


The ARF is an annual security dialogue among foreign ministers of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) and key partners, including Australia, China, India, Japan, South Korea, Russia and the European Union.

Asean groups the Philippines, Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

Daniel Russel, US President Barack Obama’s pointman for East Asia, said while Washington’s policy is not to “confront or contain China,” it will be frank during the discussions while seeking to lower tensions.

“We don’t pull punches. We don’t avoid difficult but important issues,” he told reporters in Washington ahead of the departure of his boss, US Secretary of State John Kerry, to Myanmar for the ARF and related meetings.

The one-day ARF is also expected to touch on nuclear-armed North Korea’s belligerence and territorial disputes between China and Japan in the East Sea.

Analysts said China is expected to reject calls for a freeze in activities in the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea) by insisting that these activities are not provocative.

Beijing maintains it has “indisputable sovereignty” over almost the entire sea, including waters, islands, reefs, shoals and outcrops nearer to other countries.
The Philippines, Brunei Darussalam, Malaysia and Vietnam are claiming parts of the sea, while Taiwan is a sixth claimant.

Ties between China and Vietnam sank to their lowest point in decades after Beijing last May moved a deep-sea oil rig into disputed waters near the Paracel Islands, triggering deadly anti-China riots in Vietnam.

Last March, China tried to block a resupply mission by Manila to a shoal in the Spratlys, after also seizing another South China Sea shoal from the Philippines in 2012.

Russel, the US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, said “there is a risk of miscalculation and there is a risk that an incident could escalate and lead to a crisis.”

‘Legacy of tension’
The Philippines, which has challenged China’s claims before a United Nations tribunal, has also protested Chinese reclamation works in disputed reefs, including a suspected airstrip.

It said it will table a plan at the meeting that will address “provocative and destabilizing activities” at sea.

Manila calls for an immediate moratorium on “specific activities that escalate tension,” the speedy conclusion of talks for a legally binding code of conduct and the establishment of a dispute settlement mechanism anchored on international law, the Philippines’ Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) said.

Southeast Asian diplomats said acts that raise tensions could include the building of new outposts and the seizing of islands and outcrops already occupied before 2002, when Asean and China signed a declaration to exercise self-restraint in the sea.

They could also cover construction and reclamation activities, particularly those that will fundamentally alter an island, shoal or reef.

In an apparent move to head off criticism at ARF, China last month withdrew the oil rig near Vietnam earlier than scheduled after the drilling company said its operations had been completed.

But Gregory Poling of the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies said in a commentary that China’s withdrawal of the rig “does not represent a strategic shift in its approach to the South China Sea.”

“It is at best a tactical stepping down of tensions, not a permanent de-escalation,” he noted.

US diplomat Russel said the withdrawal “removes one very, very serious irritant” in Vietnam-China ties.

“But it leaves behind a legacy of tension, of anger and of strains between China and Vietnam, and I think perhaps, more broadly, serious questions on the part of China’s neighbors about China’s long-term strategy.”

Optimistic
The Philippines, however, remains optimistic that China “may be convinced” to accept the Triple Action Plan (TAP) that will address overlapping territorial sea disputes.

Charles Jose, DFA spokesman, said TAP will be tackled at the Asean Regional Forum and its related meetings from August 8 to August 10.

“China said they will do what they want and notwithstanding that statement, we will still raise the proposal at the AMM (Asean Ministerial Meeting). It’s good for claimant countries, non-claimant countries and the international community to hear the proposal first and decide on the merits,” Jose added.

He said the TAP will work better if China will accept it.

“It’s important that China is on board,” Jose added.

China, in rejecting the action plan, maintained that it has the sovereign right to build airstrips, schools and other infrastructure on islands and waters in the region.

The freeze on activities in the West Philippine Sea is the first part of a three-tiered action plan presented by the Philippines. The second part calls for full implementation of the 2002 Declaration on the Code of Conduct and the expeditious conclusion of a more binding Code of Conduct.

The third approach is the proposal to find a “final solution” to the disputes, which have turned the Southeast Asian region into a potential military flashpoint.

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3 Comments

  1. Ex-Ambivalent on

    Some writers think that China wants to dominate the West Philippine Sea like USA established dominance over the Caribbean Sea in the early 1900s. The 2 key differences are:

    1. Japan/Korea/Taiwan nautical highways with Europe/Mideast/Africa pass the sea, while no major shipping lanes pass Caribbean except those serving US and close allies Canada and Mexico.

    2. All of China’s southern port cities are on this sea (while northern ports face the East China Sea squeezed between Taiwan and Japan), unlike America which had East and West Coasts aside from the Gulf Coast.

    The stakes are very high for everybody including China and the major Western powers. Imagine if the sea becomes too unsafe for oil tankers to pass? But while everyone recognizes that military conflict would be very bad for all, Philippines, as the weakest claimant state, has to maneuver even more carefully and pragmatically. We have to be taken seriously enough so that our national interest will not be sacrificed in a quiet deal among the big guys prioritizing only **their** interests (navigation and undersea resources). We have to decide: since we can’t get everything we want, how can we make the best of it?

    Our side shooting first would provide an fantastic excuse for China to grab a few more reefs, which their existing fleet can do. So it seems clear to me that we have to be perceived as contributing to lowering the temperature. Make the other side look like the bad guy.

    We have to build defensive and patrol capability. Not just the hardware but the deep expertise in using it all in a coordinated fashion.

  2. domeng fajardo on

    Hitler have thought that the military power of Germany is superior enough that he could conquer the whole of Europe and ultimately other continents in the west . History have proven Hitler was wrong . China may also be thinking like Hitler but am sure , they are mistaken . If ever China is economically progressive today , I believe it is not because of their own develop technology but because of copied and stolen technologies from other industrialized countries . In fact , I believe Japan is more advance in technology than China . Now that the constitution of Japan would now allow Japan to establish an adequate military capability for its defense and its allies , history will bear me out .

  3. The only language the Chinese Government will understand is a declaration of war which should be short and sharp to give them a “bloody nose” and teach them to be polite to their neighbours. Then again, what can we expect from ungodly Communist leaders of a country / nation / race of people?