With fifteen seats in the National Assembly opened up by local elections last month, the largest number in South Korean history, news outlets have dubbed the upcoming by-election on July 30 a mini-general election.

Although the Saenuri Party won eight of the seventeen contested gubernatorial and mayoral posts in June, the ruling party is not expected to perform well in the upcoming political contest as public support for the Park administration has continued to drop in light of the controversies surrounding its nominees for key cabinet positions. As it stands, President Park’s party will need to win four more seats on top of the nine seats opened up by Saenuri assemblymen to win a majority in South Korea’s unicameral legislature. Thus, a poor showing by the Saenuri party at the by-election might have long-term consequences for the conservative administration’s ability to govern.

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