SWS’ bogus Duterte poll

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The recent Social Weather Stations (SWS) poll claiming that Davao City mayor Rodrigo Duterte garnered a 38 percent rating in the presidential race is so obviously flawed, and therefore, a bogus one.

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The questionnaire, which SWS used to project the weird candidate as the front-runner:

“Q5: Ibang listahan naman po ang gamitin natin. Kasama dito si RODRIGO DUTERTE bilang isang substitute candidate sa President. Sa mga sumusunod na pangalan sa listahang ito, sino po ang malamang na inyong iboboto bilang PRESIDENTE NG PILIPINAS, kung ang eleksyon ay gaganapin ngayon? (Let’s use a different list. Included here is RODRIGO DUTERTE as substitute candidate for President. Among the following names in this list, who would you likely vote as President of the Philippines if the elections were to be held now?)”

SWS president Mahar Mangahas knows that’s simply not done in professional polling, that it’s a no-no in a poll asking respondents to pick names in a list to mention a particular name. So, why did he still do that?

The poll was “leaked” to one newspaper, obviously by Duterte supporters ecstatic about the results. Or maybe Mr. Mangahas wasn’t expecting the privately commissioned poll to be publicly released, which would show how flawed its questionnaire was.

The questionnaire grossly biases the result, as if the pollster highlighted Duterte’s name with a yellow marker in the list. In the psychological context of opinion polls, that seemingly innocuous mention of Duterte is a huge red neon arrow sign to Duterte telling respondents: “Pick him, pick him!”

It’s as if a pollster asked: Coke has reduced its price by 10 centavos. Which soft drink do you prefer in this list: Coke, Pepsi, RC Cola?

Note that the questionnaire that produced Duterte’s high ratings, or “Q5,” was preceded by a “Q4,” which seems not to have Duterte’s name. Why didn’t SWS release the results of this questionnaire?

SWS’ loaded questionnaire to push up Duterte’s ratings, with practically a neon sign asking respondents to choose him.

SWS’ loaded questionnaire to push up Duterte’s ratings, with practically a neon sign asking respondents to choose him.

I am quite sure Grace Poe would also have a similar high rating if Mangahas had her name, instead, in the questionnaire: “Included here is GRACE POE as candidate for President, who the Senate Electoral Tribunal ruled on Nov. 17 is qualified to be senator, and therefore, likely to be qualified to be President…”

The basic flaw of such voting-preference polls is the fact that at least 30 percent of respondents haven’t really made up their minds on whom to vote many months before the election day, and merely report unconsidered, shallow choices, or the candidate they last heard of or read about in the news. The mention of Duterte’s name in such a questionnaire practically ordered a lot of uncommitted respondents to pick him.

That the latest SWS poll showing Duterte with the highest rating is a bogus one is obvious in the fact that its Sept. 2-5 survey, which was commissioned by a newspaper and not a Duterte supporter as in the case of the recent one, and which didn’t have a loaded preamble mentioning his name, had only 11 percent of the respondents rooting for the Davao City mayor, just matching that of Mar Roxas.

So, Duterte’s ratings jumped by a huge 27 percentage points in just two months of changing his mind thrice about running for the highest office, and barraging the country not with his program of government but with curses, as well as boasting that he took the life of suspected criminals with his own Armalite?

SWS’ other trick
The other trick which the SWS has been doing so often is conducting such a survey to take advantage of the media coverage of what could be manufactured as “people’s opinion.” The group did that for Duterte this time.

In September, the SWS boosted Poe’s ratings to be the frontrunner after the media reported she would definitely run for President.

The poll that raised Duterte’s standing was undertaken on Nov. 26-28, after he finally announced on Nov. 23 in Davao City his “final” decision to run for the presidency. (*The reasons he gave for his change of mind were rather weird: his disappointment with the government’s failure to act on the alleged bullet-planting (tanim-bala) extortion scheme at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport and the Senate Electoral Tribunal’s decision favoring Poe.) Following his announcement, he went on a road show of media interviews, projecting himself as a spontaneous, authentic candidate, an indignant one who would topple the corrupt establishment.

Prefacing a question with a statement that covertly prods respondents to pick the one that is actually pushed by the pollster is an old trick that no decent pollster in the world now uses, and I am astonished why SWS still did it. It’s a shame that the leading pollster in the country did it.

Is it a case of a “juke-box” polling, borrowing that old term for journalists on the take, that is, the pollster giving the client who commissioned the poll what he wants to hear?

The SWS itself disclosed that the poll was commissioned by a certain William J. Lima, a Davao-based businessman. We can presume he is a Duterte-supporter.

The only information I could get on Lima is that he is president of TIG Green Technology Mindanao. He represented in 2012 the German firm Herhof GmbH in its proposal to build a $1.2-billion waste-to-water project in Davao City. For some undisclosed reason, though, the project was junked just a few months after it was proposed.

That’s a kind of worrying information as it doesn’t fit with the portrayal of Duterte as a masa politician unconnected with the rich elite: A businessmen pushing for a billion-peso project in Davao City now backing up his candidacy?

Could it be that Lima has been asked to front for a Davao businessmen’s group that has thrown its support behind Duterte, and has started undertaking its candidate’s propaganda strategy, which includes the SWS advertisement posing as a poll?

The debasement of our institutions continues.

tiglao.manilatimes@gmail.com
www.rigobertotiglao.com

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34 Comments

  1. Bayani Mendoza on

    Got tired of reading this kind of bullshit! The survey is rigged, the methodology is flawed. Does the author mean to say, that the probinsyano Duterte can hoodwink the SWS to make survey in his favor and the rest of his adversaries cannot convince SWS? Poor loser!

    • but can you disprove or argue against the specific criticisms mentioned?

      Nothing you said addresses the criticisms of the survey

  2. Me? I will choose at this moment for survey purposes only…Grace Poe, Duterte and Miriam to divert the corrupt yellow regime of Aquino-Roxas attention away from VP Jojo Binay. Hehe!

  3. It never ceases to amaze me that the Manila clan thinks the Philippines revolves around them. The arrogance is astounding. I saw an article recently that said Duterte could not win the election without catering to the Manila crowd. I have news for them all with 58M registered voters in this country only about 8M+ are in Manila. I think they should recount their declaration!

    I ask people all the time who they will vote for (Metro Cebu) and 100% have said Duterte!!!!!!!!!!!

    • WoW! You were able to ask millions of people in Cebu? You are way far better than those SWS or Pulse Asia, in fact you are the god of survey man! Maybe you should set up a survey company because you are %100 sure on what you are claiming.

  4. if they say it is flawed, then give questioners with each of the presidentiables on it? para patas, then have it analyzed.

  5. I am thinking of voting for MDS or Duterte for President..

    Let’s face it.. Duterte was the alternative choice most people want to have as president. This is due to the fact that he walks the talk against criminals and those people na nagsasamantala sa kapwa.. (we all heard the news about the man whom Duterte made to eat the bogus documents..)

    Sawa na ang taumbayan sa mga papogi na pulitiko.. para makuha lang ang boto nila..
    Sweet but empty words ika nga..

    Many says Duterte should tell his policy regarding the economy.. c’mon… if he’ll be true to his words again (as what he’s doing in Davao) to eradicate criminals.. don’t you think investor confidence will not follow??

    I just wish Mr. Duterte will also eradicate corrupts gov’t officials.. and let the people know his stand on PNoy’s DAP.. so he’ll not be tampered as another PNoy puppet..

    Or else.. MDS will get my vote..

    • I am gonna ask you? Was duterte able to capture Drug Lords, Big syndicates, Corrupt Officials? Please answer with valid proofs. So far what we do know is he only kills the poor, young people, user, small criminals who cant fight back.

      Duterte is a hypocrite and I dont believe in his lies, even claiming davao is one of the safest city wherein you cant even find davao on any valid/reliable source however you can find it on numbeo.com which is very unreliable which is only based on voting system not factual datas. In reality davao is actually one of the worst city in case of criminality rank 4 in the philippines.

      Right now, 5-10 case of criminality just happened om a week in Davao city alone, there was even bombing that shook the place few weeks ago, bombing that is no longer happening in NCR so far for the past couple of years, lots of news about deaths, theft, robbery and alike. Is it really happening to a real safe city, Not in osaka, D.C. not in tokyo, not in signapore, not in zurich.

      For us you should KILL the ROOTS (Corruption, Poverty, Drug Lords, Big Syndicates) not the EFFECTS (the poor, young people, user, small time criminas) these people are just victims of the ROOTS. These people should be given second chances and better opportunities not just kill them like a garbage.

      Ang mahihirap Lang ang pinapatay ni duterte. Para silang mga expendables Para masabi na nililinis nila ang Davao Sa droga at mapabango ang pangalan ni duterte. Subalit sa 21 years na panunungkulan nila Sa Davao di man Lang nila natanggal ang droga bagkus lalo pang lumalala, Sa kabila Ng nkapakaliit Ng Davao. Pano pa kaya ang buong pilipinas. Magisip tayo mga kababayan.
      At kung si duterte ay talagang gustong ipatupad ang batas dapat magsimula Sa kanya. Sabi nya mismo tatlo ang asawa nya. Doon p lng lumalabag n sa batas, adultery which is a serious crime. Gusto nya saw ibalik ang GMRC kaso sya mismo wla nito. Boboto b tayo Ng isang taong ipokrito? Pasensya na kaibigan. Just want to tell you the truth. Peace out.

      We are not against Duterte himself however we are against HIS LIES and HIS WAYS. Peace out my good friend.

  6. Why don’t you copy what Mayor Duterte just did, if you think the survey was rigged in his favor. Aminin nyo nang naisahan lang kayo ng isang hamak na probinsiyano lamang hahaha…

    That’s what Duterte have been doing, kahit yung style ng campaign nya unique to him only. Do your own gimik at nang hindi matawag na gaya-gaya lang…

  7. Kayo nalang gumawa nga sariling survey ninyo magtanong kayo ng 20 ka tao kung ano man ang lumabas sa 20 hatiin ninyo bya percentage tignan ko lang baka mapahiya kayo kung si Mayor Digong pa din ang nauuna..

  8. Roger espinosa on

    I cant imagine a person who is going to hold office in Malacañan, ay subrang radical na babaero, mura ng mura, walang mudos, walang galang sa karapatang pantao, maraming ghost employee ang office nya, kumakampi sa mamatay taong kumunista, atbp. Walang malinaw na plataporma, ang malinaw lang sa kanya ang pagmumura. Sinasabi nya Federalism, pag tinatanong mo naman di maipaliwanag ng maayos. Ana labo ng 6years ng pilipinas kapag si Duterte ang manalong presidrnte.

    • JACOB was a cheater, SOLOMON was a womanizer, DAVID had an affair.NOAH got drunk,JONAH ran away from God. PAUL was a murderer. GIDEON was insecure. MIRRIAM was a gossiper. SARAH was impatient. THOMAS was a doubter.ELIJAH was depressed. MOSES had killed once. ZACCHAEUS was short. ABRAHAM was old. PETER your first Pope denied Christ ( 3X pa! ) . . .. . . . ROGER , GOD doesn’t call the qualified. He qualifies the Called ( DU30) . . . .Meron pang isa si MATHEW the corrupt tax collector. Hindi na po BOBOTANTE mga mamayan ngayon . . Kung ayaw mong manalo si DUTERTE pray to your GOD. Mag salamin muna kayo at kung sa akala mong malinis ka ikaw unang pumokol sama mo na yang isa ka pa BOying

    • “JACOB was a cheater, SOLOMON was a womanizer, DAVID had an affair.NOAH got drunk,JONAH ran away from God. PAUL was a murderer. … THOMAS was a doubter…. MOSES had killed once. … PETER your first Pope denied Christ”

      afaik all of them or at least almost all of the above repented or changed their minds.

    • Repost from a conversation:
      Of course We always respect your opinion Kate. However for us, this is NOT a matter of OPINION but that of the TRUTH.

      Of course kate, I am well aware of the story of King David and his son Solomon. Both were blessed by God and made their nation Israel prosperous.

      You might be comparing Duterte to Solomon because he had a lot of wives, which is funny for me. Just a summary, before Solomon had many wives, he was a man after God obeying all God’s Laws including “YOU SHALL NOT MURDER” #6 commandment. During his reign he made Israel a world power and great wealth flowed into the kingdom.

      Solomon fell away from God and lived a life full of sin including having many wives. As a result, the glory days of Israel were short-lived. As soon as Solomon died, the kingdom was split, Solomon’s heir King Rehoboam retaining the smaller portion, and both kingdoms experienced much trouble that resulted from Solomon’s sins. The kingdom was ready for a collapse.

      So, in short Israel’s Kindom was VERY PROSPEROUS when they are OBEYING God’s LAW and RESPECTING people’s RIGHTS. The moment they had DISOBEYED God’s LAW. Poverty, Chaos & Destruction fell upon not only to David and Solomon but also to the people of ISRAEL. Both David & Solomon repented willingly not being forced by someone else unlike DUTERTE who was forced to repent but still blaming & blackmailing people w/c is NOT TRULY BEING SORRY.

      David was Israel’s GREATEST and TRULY ideal KING. He was a GREAT WARRIOR and a man who LOVED God. He brought great peace and prosperity to the land.
      Solomon was GIFTED with INCREDIBLE WISDOM.

      We do not see DUTERTE as a GREAT WARRIOR because he is afraid of CPP-NPA even paying them revolutionary tax just to spare him. We do not see DUTERTE as having INCREDIBLE WISDOM for when he speaks, he CONTRADICTS himself and CANNOT provide a WISE SOLUTION to our nation’s PROBLEM but only to KILL PEOPLE. The only thing DUTERTE, DAVID & SOLOMON have in common is MULTIPLE WIVES.

      Kate again we respect your decision however please open your eyes to the TRUTH, the truth will set us free. Peace out to you my friend!

  9. How you know that Duterte is not a puppet of the Aquino oligarch regime???? i would believe if i dont saw any pictures he was not with Pnoy.But i saw in some pictures he was with Mr. Abnoy campaigning of somewhat or elsewhere. Digong is also Tuta ni Abnoy
    aside from he is being with the side of NPA>..What we expect from him..???
    Feed ur beautiful mind pls…. hindi porke popular for being dirty harry, nakikisabay din agad kayo..

    • How obvious is it? By manipulating the survey which only asks like 300 people wherein The Philippines has more than a 100 M population. Think bro! Think!

  10. Idol ko si Tiglao, pero obvious na ayaw mo kay Duterte, kay Poe at lalo kay Roxas. Nahahalata ka naman masyado na maka BINAY KA sir! panay banat mo sa iba pero kay binay halos wla kang naisulat na negative. tsk tsk tsk

    • Not exactly Sir! – Si Duterte ay parang Kwitis na biglang sumabog – kaso ng sumabog sabog ang utak. Tama naman ang pahayag ni Mr Bobi tungkol sa maka Magic na survey ng SWS. Kung sino ang me pera – mananlo sa survey nila…tsk tsk…survey ba yung pinangangalandakan pa ang pangalan ni Do the Dirty?

  11. Feeling POGI si DUTERTE..pinagkakalat ba naman na babaero… hahaha.. yan ang nagagawa ng PERA… no money no honey ika nga… mahirap baka pambabae lang ang pera ng mga Pilipino…

  12. Rogelio Fernandez on

    That’s why i am always posting,where are they real PHd statisticians…why can’t they comment if Pulse Asian n SWS sampling method really represents the total number of voters?….no reply eversince?

  13. Why not conduct surveys that alternately mention one Presidential candidate and let us see the result?? If the candidate mentiones comes out the frontrunner, then the contention of this writer is good but if it does not and most especially if it is still Duterte, then I do not know what will other columnists who dislike Duterte can say.

  14. Based on this column mukhang ayaw mo kay Duterte Sir Bobi. Do you have any preference among the other candidates? A lot of people just think Duterte is the man. Sana ma consider ang COC niya.

    • Typical Filipino mindset when someone is telling the Truth, they will decide immediately that they don’t like the person or they are against someone or something. These are NEWS agencies, their job is to show the TRUTH nothing but the TRUTH. Truth hurts however Lies hurt MORE!

  15. Hi, Mr. Tiglao. Why not Why not touch oh on the Duterte-Ampatuan connection? When firearms were spirited into Davao City by the Ampatuans the citizens did not hear any grumble. But when an ordinary van enters the city, the Task Force Davao almost always turns it upside down to see if some firearm is hidden. When an Ampatuan shot and killed the grandson of a former Davao City treasurer, a certain Asistido, he did not grumble. He lamely said it is up to the prosecution. When an Ampatuan slapped someone inside a beer house, he did not grumble. Again, he said ‘leave it to the court.” Is this courage as Duterte presents himself or is this what you call cowardice? Under his leadership, Davao has become the epicenter of illegal DVDs. See to witness. More power.

  16. Dito na tayo sa totoo, kasi kung iba pa ang bobotohan niyo walang mangyayari san bansa na to! Kaya Duterte Cayetano na para sa pagbabago!!!!! #DuterteCayetano

  17. When I read the big change in SWS polling result from 11 percent to 30 plus percent, I knew right away that the result was rigged. How in the world can people change their minds in so short period of time? It is called MIND CONDITIONING. People believe in polls. In fact in the last presidential election, polls says Villar was way ahead but he came in third.

    • Are u trying to mind condition the readers by implying mar might just win even if he is trailing in the 4th place?

  18. That’s how STUPID the Filipinos are. Where in the world do you find such kind of survey/s? Are these survey companies, money making business for politicians. These survey companies run counter with the RELIABILITY and VALIDITY of statistics.

    • Mr. Deleon. Surveys are just surveys, they don’t represent who will win. People who believe in surveys may be stupid but not all pinoys are stupid! When they send out questionnaires may I ask you, did YOU fill out one? NO? that is why surveys are just the top layer of the ocean, what lies underneath, nobody knows! But people, you mean stupid people, they jump up and down when they read or hear about surveys. There are many ways why surveys are made and there are many reasons why they are done. Because some stupid people when they see that X is winning, they give up on their candidates. Now, those are really stupid people. Some immediately open their mouths and gaggle, now those are the second category of stupid people. why do we even bother ourselves with surveys? It can be paid, it is not true, it is a gimmick and a good publicity issue. People will buy magazines and newspapers. People will read the papers. Not every news that journalists write is a fact.

  19. I don’t think any survey really matters. It is used by politicians to condition the mind of the voters that the candidate is popular among the voters. One thing I am sure whether it’s Roxas, Poe and Binay, the Filipino people believe that these 3 candidates will keep the status quo and let aquino and the hayup 10 escape the persecutions of the sins to the people. Binay is a part of the yellow turds and he will not go after noynoy and the LPs and so with Roxas. In case of Poe she is cast in the image of one of the most incompetent president in the history of the world and that is Cory Aquino, democracy icon daw. Duterte is the last hope of the Filipino people. If their wish for a real change for the country is prevented by the elite who are financing these politicians to keep the status quo, people particularly from Mindanao and Visayas will rise up against the central government (Capital region).

    • I am gonna ask you? Was duterte able to capture Drug Lords, Big syndicates, Corrupt Officials? Please answer with valid proofs. So far what we do know is he only kills the poor, young people, user, small criminals who cant fight back.
      Duterte is a hypocrite and I dont believe in his lies, even claiming davao is one of the safest city wherein you cant even find davao on any valid/reliable source however you can find it on numbeo.com which is very unreliable which is only based on voting system not factual datas. In reality davao is actually one of the worst city in case of criminality rank 4 in the philippines.
      Right now, 5-10 case of criminality just happened om a week in Davao city alone, there was even bombing that shook the place few weeks ago, bombing that is no longer happening in NCR so far for the past couple of years, lots of news about deaths, theft, robbery and alike. Is it really happening to a real safe city, Not in osaka, D.C. not in tokyo, not in signapore, not in zurich.
      For us you should KILL the ROOTS (Corruption, Poverty, Drug Lords, Big Syndicates) not the EFFECTS (the poor, young people, user, small time criminas) these people are just victims of the ROOTS. These people should be given second chances and better opportunities not just kill them like a garbage.
      Ang mahihirap Lang ang pinapatay ni duterte. Para silang mga expendables Para masabi na nililinis nila ang Davao Sa droga at mapabango ang pangalan ni duterte. Subalit sa 21 years na panunungkulan nila Sa Davao di man Lang nila natanggal ang droga bagkus lalo pang lumalala, Sa kabila Ng nkapakaliit Ng Davao. Pano pa kaya ang buong pilipinas. Magisip tayo mga kababayan.
      At kung si duterte ay talagang gustong ipatupad ang batas dapat magsimula Sa kanya. Sabi nya mismo tatlo ang asawa nya. Doon p lng lumalabag n sa batas, adultery which is a serious crime. Gusto nya saw ibalik ang GMRC kaso sya mismo wla nito. Boboto b tayo Ng isang taong ipokrito? Pasensya na kaibigan. Just want to tell you the truth. Peace out.
      We are not against Duterte himself however we are against HIS LIES and HIS WAYS. Peace out my good friend.