SWS polls take us for fools

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With the Social Weather Stations (SWS) as its accomplice, the Liberal Party has gone on a blitz to create an illusion that Manuel Roxas II’s ratings as a presidential candidate have improved. This is despite the fact that he has done nothing in the past many months that would convince Filipinos why he should be president.

In fact he has proven to be a clone of his boss President Aquino, incompetent, brattish and with a juvenile temperament. Roxas II has been even identified with that which has helped create a hell for Filipinos commuting everyday along EDSA: the broken-down MRT-3.

His ratings in the presidential race had been stuck in the basement for two years now, even put at single-digit levels by unpublished surveys.

However with the help of SWS, Roxas II is executing a clever operation to create an illusion that he will handily beat Binay next year.


The first step in the manufacture of the deception: For the SWS to report that Filipinos like his boss Aquino more, despite his incompetence that led to the Mamasapano massacre, the continuing massive smuggling, the worsening crime so bad that people are being killed and robbed in broad daylight, and the incontrovertible fact that workers’ real wages have been cut despite GDP growth in the past years.

The SWS on September 21 released its “findings” that Aquino’s “satisfaction” ratings zoomed to a net plus 41 percentage points from 11 in March.

Those plain numbers conceal how unbelievable that is: It means a 272 percent increase in Filipinos’ satisfaction over his leadership. That’s something that could happen only if he had undertaken some earth-shaking initiative, perhaps on the scale of selling Hacienda Luisita and giving the proceeds to his CCT (i.e. dole-out) program. No such thing.

“Aquino ratings zoomed, so Roxas’ would too!” (Background photo: the duo in Zamboanga City last January 25 while the Mamasapano massacre was unfolding.)

“Aquino ratings zoomed, so Roxas’ would too!” (Background photo: the duo in Zamboanga City last January 25 while the Mamasapano massacre was unfolding.)

Nobody actually believed the SWS poll on Aquino, not even the Philippine Daily Inquirer, which for the first time ever, relegated the report to its inside pages. No columnist even bothered to criticize it, so that SWS president Mahar Mangahas pathetically tried to draw attention to it in his Inquirer column

With a fantastic 272 percent increase in Aquino’s ratings, when all developments during that time were making him an unpopular president, a real social scientist would have gone back to his data and methodology, checked it ten times to verify why its survey got such an unbelievable result. But not SWS, especially its President Mahar Mangahas. At least its competitor Pulse Asia narrates major developments that occurred before its surveys, to validate even if not with precision, its survey findings.

Important reason

But there is an important reason why SWS risked reporting such obviously inaccurate polls, which I will discuss below.

Before discussing that, we have to expose the second step of the strategy to boost Roxas’ ratings.

A few day later, SWS released the results of its poll that asked the question: “Who do you think are the good leaders who should succeed Pres. Aquino as President? You may give up to three names.”

Note the framing of the question. Even if you really won’t vote for Roxas, you might still include him in the list three  of names, as Aquino in fact endorsed him. On the other hand, how can Binay succeed Aquino when he has been  very critical of  him as an opposition?

Why did SWS ask for three names, not four or five or six? Because if a respondent were asked to give four names, Davao Mayor Digong Duterte would likely make it to the list, reducing Roxas II’s shares. The choose-3 kind of poll is so crass I have never heard it used anywhere else in the world.

Oila! Mangahas’ magic produces a really fake poll that Roxas got 39 percent while Binay only 34 percent with Poe still topping the poll with 47 percent.

This SWS operation reveals its lack of scientific integrity. Mangahas knows full well that it is not a voter-preference opinion, even if he knows that media would report it as such, which they did. Many news articles — likely supported financially by Roxas’ propaganda group — reported that he had overtaken Binay in voters’ preference for the presidency.

What is highly suspicious is that nobody commissioned that question, so it was entirely out of Mangahas’ wish to do. If you were an ethical social scientist, why would you undertake a misleading, unscientific survey?

The reason why Mangahas undertook such a stupid three-choice survey and released its findings is that even as it wasn’t a voter-preference poll, it would be portrayed  by media as one, as indeed it was.

Its intention was to change people’s current perceptions based on genuine voter-preference surveys that Roxas wasn’t going anywhere as a presidential candidate, with his ratings unchanged over two years now that even Aquino had hesitated to endorse him as his candidate and instead was going  for Grace Poe-Llamanzares.

The third step in the SWS operation was the release of a real voter-preference survey, that is, one that asked who would you vote for for president, not to name three as “best leaders” to replace Aquino. The poll reported Poe with 26 percent, Binay 24 percent and Roxas 20.

Respondents from Capiz?

If SWS’ respondents in the Visayas were from Iloilo or Capiz, those for Luzon from Tarlac, or from Cubao for NCR, Roxas’ 20 percent wouldn’t be surprising. Why doesn’t the SWS ever make public where it got its respondents?

I could visualize Mangahas stuttering in a press conference if had called for one and spoke what he felt: “OK, I know you didn’t’ believe the first poll (the three-choice one) in which Roxas got 39 percent, beating Binay with just 34 percent. But now I give you a new figure of 20 percent, which I think – after that 34 percent – is credible.”

And what did the unbelievable jump in Aquino’s satisfaction ratings have anything to do with this?

As the Liberal Party’s face, Congressman Edgar Erice, said, Roxas’ numbers miraculously improved because of Aquino’s endorsement power. If Aquino’s ratings were not reported by SWS as having vastly improved, the increase in Roxas’ ratings would be totally inexplicable.

The Liberal Party’s strategy is to falsely portray in the public mind that Roxas has climbed from his basement-level ratings, so that the contest has become a neck-to-neck one with Binay, with Poe to be disqualified by hook and by crook.

The next steps in Roxas II’s strategy would be first, to disqualify Poe on grounds she is not a natural-born citizen and lacks the required years of residency. The second step, would be the filing of a second non-bailable plunder charge against Binay.

SWS would quickly do its fools’ polls, and Roxas would claim that with Poe out of the contest, her followers shifted to him, instead of Binay because of the plunder charges.

If not through outright cheating, the massive funds accumulated by the yellow horde – even including those from the Disbursement Acceleration Plan – would tip the results for Roxas

These people are taking us for fools.

tiglao.manilatimes@gmail.com
FB: Bobi Tiglao

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34 Comments

  1. SWS and PULSE SURVEY are inseparable when it comes to fooling the people… CONDITIONING THE MINDS?? sorry guys but the ignorant ones are your only victims…..

  2. This SWS deceptive survey is purposively done to condition the public minds this early for them to accept the Smartmatec computerized cheating later when it would start counting votes for the presidential and senatorial slots. The manner of execution of these “conditioning” and “cheating” was so obvious that everyone saw through the stinking maneuvers done by SWS, Comelec and the administration. If Roxas wins lets do the Cory’s Edsa revolution all over again, this time removing his shameless yellow group of thieves.

  3. Roxas needs to be his own man ..he needs balls ….. He is not, and never was …. Sad news for his deceased dad who was a pillar as a man and. Politician …. Mama’s boy has not proven his worth or competency.. Then you have his deadweight K

  4. The Sws survey is perhaps done in malacanang and filled-up by the malacanang clowns. The speed in growth and changes as well as the results are unbelievable. Mr. Tiglaos analysis is much more believable. Please check if SWS has payroll in malacanang..(just a suggestion).

  5. I am already irritated with the survey reports of SWS. I wish senate will investigate this company for psychological sabotage of filipino voters. It is worst than economic sabotage.

  6. If the results don’t favor your cause you question it? And what makes you different from them? While I am no fan of LP it is not for me to question the survey result. Or worse yet you dnt seem to understand the data presented? You could have given a wise interpretation of data but instead you went the other way around. You sound so bitter and pathetic.

  7. It’s time Tiglao should come up with his own survey. That way he can compare the results with that of SWS and see the deviation. Before that, his opinion would just be opinion bereft of factual basis.

  8. Mangahas and his friends would be jailed in North America and Europe. Only gullible people can believe his reports…

  9. survey credible or not is always part of the game. i think all we have to ask for now
    is for a fair decision from all the SENATE ELECTORAL TRIBUNAL members and whatever the decision should be brought immediately to the supreme court for final decision for us to be able to move on – for our own sake and for the unity of the filipino people who have been polarized 24/7 because of politics.

  10. survery credible or not is always part of the game. i think all we have to ask for now
    is for a fair decision from all the members and whatever the decision is should be brought immediately to the supreme court for final decision for us to be able to move on – for our own sake and for the unity of the filipino people who have been polarized 24/7 because of politics.

  11. SWS said that 1200 respondents were spread nationwide. Were there respondents from Tacloban City? Ever since, I have not heard nor known of a Taclobanon being interviewed for a SWS survey.

    Our professor in Statistics subject told us: “FIGURES DO NOT LIE, BUT LIARS USE FIGURES”.

  12. What the LP has overlooked is the use by Poe’s camp of people power in reverse – the installation of Poe as president and not the ouster of an incumbent as what happened to Marcos and Estrada. The sustained front-running position of Poe in poll surveys validates her efficacy as a duly elected president. Nobody can question her popularity which is buttressed by her strong name recall, celebrity-like status, support by hordes of movie actors and actresses, well-known entertainers, sentimental necro politics augmented by the incessant showing of old FPJ movies , etc. Erap and his PMP will provide the mass base and the machinery to insure that Poe’s votes are counted and protected. But more importantly, to provide the shock troops in the event that an attempt is made to thwart the voice of the people – Vox Populi . NPC, NUC and Lakas -NUCD turncoats will further augment the already formidable machinery . Danding Cojuangco and other business tycoons to insure financial and other logistical requirements even to the extent of totally underwriting Poe’s campaign. The 20-point agenda to extend a facade of substance and respectability to an otherwise entertainment – based campaign and from where a credible message and slogan can be derived. All the elements for a successful presidential campaign are there – a credible and popular candidate, a well- oiled machinery, a campaign strategy, a message and inexhaustible resources. Will an obviously disqualified presidential candidate Poe eventually emerge president in 2016 because of Vox Populi ?

    • “vox populi” will not prevail over a constitutional mandate. the violation existed before the people’s will and voice were rendered. so the disqualification was “ab initio”.

  13. unbelievable and unimaginable survey for the most incompetent duo,

    theres got to be one explanation :

    THEY SHOWED US THE GRAPHS UPSIDE DOWN !

  14. The secret politburo that is behind the Comelec/Smartmatic cheating machine is the same politburo behind SWS and Pulse Asia. It telegraphs its moves through these fake survey ratings. These latest surveys shows that in the jockeying for power inside this cabal Roxas is gaining ground, although I still believe that Boy Sayad’s preferred candidate is Binay butt BS cannot push that hard for him because very obviously this BS has been effectively defanged by the Hyatt 10/Mar Roxas faction in this government. What is very telling though is the deadening silence that has somehow managed to wrap itself around this Comelec/Smartmatic cheating machine. Imagine the exact same situation today but with only one difference, the president is not Boy Sayad but Marcos or Erap: the entire world including the whole western press will devour this Smartmatic issue like a million vultures attracted to a rotting cadaver. That they are all, including the Catholic Church and the Makati Business Club and the rest of the yellow do-gooders, making “DEDMA” to Smartmatic is enough to tell you what the real story is behind this farce that they are passing off as an election.

    • ….behind this farce they are passing off as an election whose results they are announcing in advance through SWS.

    • hindi ko makalimutan yung expose ni tanda nung unang balik nya sa senado from hospital arrest- the unaccounted 12MILLION VOTES that the comelec hid from all of us. I STILL CANNOT COMPREHEND WHY THE PPCRV (supposed to be guardian of election represented by the faithful followers of the catholic church and the church itself represented by the number 1 cardinal here, cardinal tagle, HAS BEEN QUIET ABOUT THIS 12MILLION VOTE ANOMALY. IS THE PPCRV IN CAHOOTS WITH THE SMARTMATIC-COMELEC MAFIA?? sad thing is we are going to use these hocus pcos machines of smartmatic-comelec gang again in the most important elections in 2016. LOLOKOHIN NA NAMAN TAYO MGA MAMAMAYAN NG GRUPONG ITO.

    • Justaskingseriously on

      Haven’t you read about the catholic bishops with some protestant pastors and patriotic lay people who filed cases with the Supreme Court against the Comelec’s dealings with Smartmatic? Francisco Tatad devoted a whole column to their efforts to stop the Comelec.

      You just cannot resist including the “Catholic Church” in your comment even though that term is so abstract that it stands out as something pulled out of thin air. You simply could not hide your being “tanga” by commenting on Efren Danao’s “dream” of the INC finally educating their membership on giving up their “block voting” and learning the real meaning of “separation of Church and State” as inviolable. “Ano kami, tanga?” was also your dream. As I wrote in my response to Rizalino Arabbis’ jabs at catholics and protestants, the wily serpent in the garden of Eden is always true to its role as antichrist. You cannot possibly ignore that you are lending yourself as antichrist’s tool every time you give in to attacking the “Catholic Church” simply because it sounds completely contrived. The antichrist “masquerading” as INC is having “LOL” even if you are the one smirking. Jealousy is at the very core of the AntiChrist. Jealousy is actually incompatible with humor. Cynicism is its favorite ploy. The Antichrist has been forever banished from the presence of God. That is what is meant by the word ‘Hell”. Complete absence of happiness forever. How can you be happy when all you think is to believe the opposite of whatever catholics and protestants believe? What really do you get out of attacking what you do not believe anyway? Please enlighten me what it is that you are saved “from” by being an INC.

    • Justaskingseriously on

      Whatever happened to the electoral sabotage complaint against Smartmatic? As reported on July 30, 2015, Gus Lagman, Glenn Chong, and others lodged a complaint with Comelec accusing Smartmatic of “fixing” the source code of PCOS machines. This “fixing” happened at the PPCRV headquarters in connection with the 12 million votes. What do the volunteers for PPCRV know about digital machines? What can their volunteers “watch” when there was really nothing to watch? Were their volunteers just watching voters “voting responsibly”? What letter in the acronym “PPCRV” empowers their volunteers to ensure a clean election when it took Gus Lagman and his group more than 2 years to realize how Comelec made a fool of everybody through hocusPCOS?

      And despite serious accusations of electoral sabotage, the COMELEC is still going to employ the saboteurs in 2016? Parish Pastoral Council for Clean and Responsible Voting (PPCRV) needs to cut itself off as the Comelec’s “arm”. After all, there is nothing the PPCRV can really do to stop voters from accepting “handouts” during elections. Why must Comelec “authorize” any group of volunteers in connection with clean elections? Isn’t it time for Comelec to just let concerned voters make sure elections are clean and honest by using local voting gadgets designed by Filipino techies? This call has become shrill enough for every election commissioner to ignore. Nagbingibingi-an? Playing deaf might just turn out real deaf someday soon enough.

  15. this mind conditioning by the administration will make those suffering from mental fatigue vote for an inutil.

  16. You see it clearly. SWS constructs its pools to yield predicable results that they are paid for. I have not seen a SWS poll that I believe.

  17. Yes, all in preparation for the pre-programmed PCOS results. No PCOS, and these 3 idiots won’t get 10% in total votes together.

  18. Perhaps some reputable and fully independent polling organisations like Gallop could be commissioned by the Manila Times, or better still, (because of cost and the need for truth) a consortium of respectable newspapers.

  19. Jose A. Oliveros on

    SWS, headed by somebody whom former Senator Tatad calls “Mahal Mang Ahas”, is probably using as its bible a book entitled “How To Lie With Statistics” that is why SWS always comes out with questionable results.

  20. Sira -ulo din si mangahas gaya ni NOYTARD,mar,erice at drilon.puro paninisi,magpabaya,manuhol at paninigarilyo ang ginagawa ng mga gago.

  21. So “TRUE” Mr. Tiglao, The yellow horde at its best. How about the Yolanda victims? Fallen44 in Mamasapano? MRT? Traffic? and so on…

    All of these are under the supervision of Roxas and PNOY, But what have they done? Did they give sulutions? did the justice prevail? a lot of questions for these duo. How can we trust them?

  22. SWS may be setting up Roxas’ win in 2016 by PCOS machines. I can’t believe they are all conspiring to ram Roxas down the Filipino people’s throats. Shades of Pnoy.

  23. In a country like the Philippines where civic-mindedness is not so popular and a trend, there ‘oughta’ be a law banning statistics (the big lie), unless the name of the agency, the sponsor of the study are identified and the methodology or how the numbers are arrived at, can be explained. Statistics usually duped the citizens into “joining the band wagon” as many uninformed voters are prone to have the notion that they will be voing for the loser per statistics, or vice versa. It is, in all sense of the word, misleading!

  24. I hope one day a law would be passed that would make these survey outfits(misfits) make available their records for audit by reputable audit companies or any other means to verify the results. These polls have a serious impact on voter preference during elections or on any topic of national interest. We should resist any form of mind control.

  25. Another good point from you Mr. Tiglao. Your careful analysis and presentation of data is indeed closer to real score of events. Keep it up! Cheers.