The problems a Brexit won’t solve

WITH just a week to go before Britain votes on whether to remain a member of the European Union, yet another Global Affairs column on the topic perhaps seems unnecessary. Stratfor’s contributors and subscribers alike seem to lean strongly toward Britain staying, and Betfair, the most influential bookmaking website, estimates a 65 percent chance that that is exactly what will happen. Admittedly, in late-May Betfair put the chance of remaining at 81 percent and now says “both sides have everything to play for,” but it hardly seems likely that another column from me will have much impact on the numbers. To date, in fact, the more I have written urging Britons to stay, the faster they have turned away from that option.

But that is exactly why I am writing this piece. I strongly suspect that when future historians look back on the 2016 referendum, this mass rejection of the views of the kind of people who read or write for Stratfor will strike them as one of its most telling features.