What next for Aquino?

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Things could really get tough for Benigno Aquino 3rd when his presidential term and immunity from prosecution end on July 1. Just the illegal Disbursement Acceleration Program alone could land him in prison for decades.

In its unanimous decision voiding DAP in July 2014, the Supreme Court said: “Upon careful review of the documents contained in the seven evidence packets, we conclude that the ‘savings’ pooled under the DAP were allocated to PAPs [programs and projects]not covered by any appropriations in the pertinent GAAs” or General Appropriations Acts, the national budget.

If, as the justices found, DAP money was disbursed for expenditures not in any budget law, that means the P157-billion DAP is the biggest malversation or misspending of state funds in Philippine history.

With some 1,400 separate DAP disbursements reportedly signed by Aquino, even if just one-tenth of them are judged in violation of law, that’s at least 70 years in prison, based on the minimum mandatory penalty of six months jail for each count of malversation.


That’s just Aquino. There’s also Budget Secretary and DAP architect Florencio Abad. Plus dozens of Liberal Party stalwarts who received the bulk of pork barrel funds tripled from past levels since 2011 to more than P20 billion a year.

That unprecedented LP largesse has yet to get the kind of auditing and investigation which landed opposition Senators Juan Ponce Enrile, Jinggoy Estrada and Bong Revilla in the dock.

And there is the Metro Rail Transit maintenance contract already charged in the Sandiganbayan, but with LP leaders Mar Roxas and Jose Emilio Abaya spared despite being transportation czars during contract bidding and signing. Plus other plunder-size scams in license plates, combat helicopters, and trainer jets yet to be probed.

Endgame scenarios for Aquino

Plainly, the LP leadership has to be working out various endgame scenarios that would spare them from accountability for administration anomalies, which also include the trebling of smuggling to more than $25 billion a year, based on International Monetary Fund data, and the uninvestigated release of thousands of untaxed cargo containers.

So what’s ahead for Aquino and his top allies? Let’s plot out the exit strategies,

The ideal one, of course, is no exit: Roxas wins the elections and the LP gets six more salad years spared from plunder investigations and charges. This is looking less and less viable with each voter survey placing Roxas in third or fourth place.

Obviously, that placing would not win the presidency. And if the widely feared repeat of computerized cheating catapults Roxas to victory, that “hocus PCOS” would almost surely provoke an uprising.

Imagine the combined three-quarters of voters backing Vice-President Jejomar Binay, Davao Mayor Rodrigo Duterte, and Senator Grace Poe enraged over their chosen leaders overtaken by the opinion poll fourth-placer. That may well trigger another People Power revolution on the year of its 30th anniversary.

Realistically, only a second-ranked survey contender could possibly pull off a manipulation scheme using the Precinct Count Optical Scan system, with just the topnotcher’s supporters feeling cheated.

Can Roxas manage to reach No. 2? Reports of administration factions, including that of Aquino shooting buddy Rico Puno, turning to other presidentiables suggest that even those in the ruling clique doubt the LP standard bearer’s prospects.

Which brings us to Aquino’s Plan B: back Senator Poe and pressure her to spare LP chiefs from accountability.

Those who see this scenario unfolding point to the chorus of Aquino appointees in the Supreme Court asserting that Poe is a natural-born Filipino, despite zero evidence that any of her parents are Filipino, as expressly stipulated in the constitutional definitions for natural-born citizenship that apply to her.

But will Poe protect Aquino and his friends? She denies being his secret candidates, as rumors have it, though she says she would make him an adviser. And he insists that Roxas is his only candidate.

The best answer to this question is another question: Will any of the other rival presidentiables be accommodating to Aquino, enough to be a viable alternative if Roxas fails? Will Binay or Duterte protect the Aquino camp?

Answer that, and you know why Poe is Plan B.

The last resort
What if she is disqualified or defeated like Roxas? Here’s where the Aquino endgame gets really interesting — and scary.

The easy way out for him is to flee to the United States, which would probably shelter him in appreciation for his pro-American stance against China and his forging of the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement escalating US force rotations in the country and granting them to Philippine military bases.

If there’s an outcry against American asylum for Aquino, the US weathered far worse when it allowed dictator Ferdinand Marcos, his family and his associates to settle in Hawaii after his ouster.

Yet Aquino may just decide not to flee, but to fight — by declaring martial law and having it affirmed by Congress.

Huh? How can he do the very thing his family’s hated tormentor did?

Actually, Aquino has done a good number of Marcosian things.

He coddles a coterie of cronies whom he always defends and never investigates. His media allies keep off the headlines such enormities as the trebling of crime, smuggling and pork barrel under his watch. He even contemplated ruling beyond the Constitution’s term limits. Now, he may yet do so.

How? One scenario: Knowing all about PCOS shenanigans, the administration engineers a massive expose, prompting failure of election. Aquino declares martial law to prevent naitonal instability, the LP-controlled legislature affirms it, and Washington, fearful of losing the EDCA, backs another Filipino strongman.

Impossible? We never thought a president would bribe Congress to impeach the Chief Justice, look away while 2,000 cargo containers disappeared, usurp lawmakers’ budgeting power with their open support, and let dozens of police commandos die in an operation run by a suspended police chief.

We should know by now that Benigno Aquino 3rd can make the unthinkable happen.

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20 Comments

  1. conspiracy theory.. indeed… to jail after malacañang… a tradition after all… #GodSavethePhilippines

  2. every word in this article was well researched and analyzed. I still believe pinoy has an agreement with poe under the table.

  3. No that is also a scenario but the real scenario is Martial Law will be declared by Aquino with his tirade against China there will be a shooting war for at least 2 months in the WPS/SCS . This move is calculated already Martial Law declared before May 9, 2016 elections and Drilon Senate who will also lose if election is held will concur it.

    It will be followed again by Revolutionary Government and Revolutionary Freedom Constitution again, copy cat of the Evil Dictator Cory.

    Then, open talks with china and china will be given full access in terms of economic exploitation of WPS with agreement the WPS Islets (Spartly Islands) will be ours but the exploitation will be for China.

    See, how this Abnormal President Pnoy can do. Mag isip isip na ulit kayo.

    Grace is the Secret Candidate as I have repeatedly mentioned even before it became a breaking news.

    Duterte is another anointed Secret Candidate of Pnoy, why the Evil Dictator is a PDP Laban a party mate of Duterte. PDP Laban was strengthened by Pnoy with his Laban Party somewhat like that sounding which party was created by Pnoy while he was a congressman and he affiliated it with PDP Laban.

    Now, Binay with much funfare is loyal to the Aquinos and was also the Secret Candidate long before Mar was openly anointed.

    Now, who will you vote for me its Meriam . . .

  4. The only sure way to make BS Aquino accountable after he leaves office is for the Filipino electorate to repudiate his officially anointed candidate, Mar Roxas and his plan B candidate, Grace Poe Llamazarez, on election day.

  5. Do not ignore the magic trio. Abnoy, enrile, & chizwiz. If you insist that plan b is grace, try to research pa more for a hideous plan c w/c is binayupak presidency.

  6. If all the escape plan failed to save private noynoy, then the last resort could be to release the medical records of noynoy…innocent by reason of insanity!?

  7. Leodegardo Pruna on

    Seems a very good analysis of what is to come. God save the Philippines. God bless the Philippines.

  8. He’s done worst in just his 6 year term! Please naman Filipino voters, make Philippines livable and and not LEAVE-ABLE. Vote wisely. Calling armed forces not to be seduced / used by this crazy president. Help uphold The Constitution that your President is trampling upon.

  9. Pnoy been doing a good job. He is not perfect. And u all know that. Compare him to marcoses, GMA, fvr, erap, etc. If he will be harassed after his term there maybe another people power revolt.

    • Pinoy is not perfect but what has he done for this country? As far as I know, he has not done any substantial accomplishment. Like when he was a congressman and senator, he was not able to write any law . His main job is a lawmaker legislature. Same as president, 6 years without any accomplishment . His plan is to make the government rich by not releasing and or delaying the release of funds needed for government projects because he is scared that money will go to bad politicians. So late government projects. What for is the taxes we paid if we do not see where it is being spent.

    • I agree. Aquino is not perfect. But please do not compare him to Marcos, GMR, FVR or even Erap. Noynoy Aquino is nothing compared to MARCOS, GMA, FVR and ERAP. There is simply no point of comparison.

    • Please review history and learn the truth behind people power in EDSA in 1986. Filipinos have been brainwashed long enough. History will soon catch up with the opportunists of the circumstance of EDSA I.

    • Mr. Anton, Seriously can you tell us his accomplishment in 6 years? Consider the Mamapasano massacre, Zamboanga siege, Yolanda funds, PDAP- DAP, importation of sugar and rice, widespread poverty, exodus of OFWs, increasing crime rate, 90 % of barangays in the Phils now penetrated with drug dealers, MRT- LRT fiasco, privatization of government hospitals, government corruption here and there and other countless problems that his leadership was unable to address. Look around you and still you have the guts to tell he is better than the previous presidents? Filipinos are not stupid. They know who is who to support.

    • A good job ?

      How do you figure that ?

      Try reading about what has been going on the past 6 years

      The crime rate increased from 300,000 cases a year to 1,300,000

      The smuggling increased –
      Nearly one-fourth of imports into the country in the last five years have been unreported and untaxed, totaling $94 billion. That’s more than four times the estimated smuggled value of just $21 billion from 2005 to 2009.

      Corruption increased –
      20 senators and 100 rep’s gave their pork allocation to Napoles only 3 opposition senators charged.

      The DAP fund –

      147 billion
      The DAP issue broke out after Sen. Jose “Jinggoy” Estrada in a privileged speech in September 2013, revealed that he and his fellow senators received P50 million each for voting for the conviction of impeached Chief Justice Renato Corona in 2012

      Why ?
      The Cojuangcos, according to the Supreme Court, should be given fair and just compensation of P173 million, or Hacienda Luisita’s 1989 value when the landlords undertook their fake land reform program. The landlord clan wanted P10 billion, its present market value.

      Aquino’s appointee to the Supreme Court, the very inexperienced classmate of his, Lourdes Sereno, couldn’t convince the Court to increase the payment to the clan from P173 million to P10 billion. Sereno herself told Aquino that there was no way for her to sway the Court if Corona remained as chief justice.

      He had to be removed, and that could be done only through impeachment.

      Long story short Corona impeached, Sereno now the Chief Justice

      The SAF massacre –
      Pnoy responsible and no arrests of the wanted murderers over a year later.

      Typhoon Yolanda debacle –
      Victims without food or water for 5 days.
      How’s the reconstruction gong you ask ?
      Tens of thousands of people who are still living in tents, There are countless families who have not received the merest assistance to help them recover and rebuild their lives.

      The MRT mess

      Traffic gridlock

      Flooding in Manila

      I could do this all day and not cover half the scandals and incompetence of the Aquino administration

      A good job you say ?

  10. The biggest possibility maybe 90 percent is Pinoy will influence the Supreme Court not to DQ Grace Poe. Poe is still in deep trouble right now. There is no judgment yet by the Supreme Court. It can go either way. Pinoy has to influence the Supreme Court not to DQ Poe and bargain with Poe on the charges that will surely be charge against him. The other plans listed will be a very big risk for Pinoy. Martial law will not work. Protection from the US will also not work. United States is not that stupid.

    • Indeed, the justices can play ball and allow Grace to run. That gives the justices a nice nest for retirement. But on the motion for reconsideration, the justices will dribble the case and issue their decision after the election when Bonget has been declared a Vice President. Since Bonget has declared a government of unity, benigno may yet be left untouched just as Barack kept silent on all the shenanigans of his predecessor. That may be the quid pro quo that Dan Dean may ask of Bonget.

  11. Once PNoy lives, expect him to use his tricks and lies to escape from court cases. one good way to deal with PNoy the legal way and effectively is not to vote for both Roxas and Llamanzares.