Why Mayweather is the favorite on May 2

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(Second of three parts)
I was not at all surprised Floyd Mayweather Jr. is the betting favorite in his May 2 fight against Manny Pacquiao. The reasons are simple: Mayweather is undefeated, is the bigger fighter, and is a master technician in the ring.

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Pacquiao is also no longer seen as invincible, because he was knocked out cold in December 2012 by rival Juan Ma-nuel Marquez in the sixth round in what was their fourth meeting.

In contrast, Mayweather remains undefeated and that is not a small feat considering the champions he beat, and also the undefeated fighters whom he handed their first losses at the championship level: the late Diego Corrales (33-0 with 27 knockouts when he was stopped in the 10th round on January 2001); Ricky Hatton (42-0 with 31 KOs when he was stopped in the 10th round on December 2007); and Saul Alvarez (41-0 with 32 KOs on September 2013 before losing via majority decision to the American).

The fight resume of Mayweather also shows he beat notable and/or accomplished fighters like Jose Luis Castillo, Arturo Gatti, Zab Judah, Oscar Dela Hoya, Juan Manuel Marquez, Shane Mosley, Miguel Cotto, Robert Guerrero and Marcos Maidana.

The size advantage of Mayweather, especially in the reach department, will definitely be a factor in the fight.

And again, I would like to emphasize for the nth time—the present weigh-in rules, where fighters are weighed about 36 hours before the actual fight, favors the naturally bigger guys. Why? During the 36-hour period after a weigh in, a naturally bigger person can put on more weight, which can be an advantage at fight night.

Mayweather’s highest weight at the scales is 151 pounds in his fight against Alvarez. In his fight against Oscar Dela Hoya at super welterweight (154 pounds), Mayweather weighed in at 150 pounds.

On the other hand, Pacquiao weighed in at 147 pounds, the welterweight limit, in his fourth fight against Marquez.

There is a possibility Mayweather will weigh five to eight pounds more than Pacquiao on fight night. On the other hand, Pacquiao’s camp seem oblivious to the Filipino putting on much weight at fight night, because that might diminish his speed in the ring.

While Pacquiao is still perceived as the harder hitter between the two, the extra weight Mayweather may carry into the ring can help the American generate more respectable punching power.

So those expecting Pacquiao to “walk through” Mayweather’s punches come fight night better stop dreaming. That simply won’t happen! Simply look at how Alvarez got badly hurt whenever Mayweather landed clean rights on the Mexican, who by the way has a reputation for having a strong chin.

But it is the five-inch reach advantage of Mayweather that can make things truly hard for Pacquiao. While Pacquiao easily landed punches on much bigger fighters like Antonio Margarito and Chris Algieri, it is obvious comparing those two fighters to Mayweather is like comparing SUVs to a Ferrari or Lamborghini.

That five-inch reach advantage can be put to good use by Mayweather to score at will against Pacquiao. To illustrate what I am talking about, let me just quote some facts from the article Mayweather measures up with greats by Igor Guryashkin that was posted at the ESPN website.

The article used data from CompuBox, which is a computerized scoring system that counts every punch a boxer throws and lands, and the number of punches a boxer absorbs.

The article said Mayweather’s plus/minus connect percentage is plus 30, while Pacquiao’s is plus 4.7.

The article said Pacquiao connects only 12.3 percent of his jabs although the Filipino attempts twice the amount of jabs. On the other hand, Mayweather connects 41.6 percent of his jabs. When it comes to power punches, Pacquiao connects 45.3 and Mayweather 47.8 percent.

What is glaring, however, is Pacquiao’s opponents land 33.6 percent of their punches on the Filipino, while Mayweather’s foes manage to land only 18.6 percent, according to the article.

Some would argue Mayweather had difficulties with southpaws. That argument holds no water anymore, because Mayweather had an easy time against southpaw Robert Guerrero on May 2013. All the judges scored it 111-117 for Mayweather.

While there are many things stacking up in favor of Mayweather, that does not mean Pacquiao does not have a chance to beat the American. In fact, I am giving Pacquiao more than a puncher’s chance to beat Mayweather on May 2.

Conclusion: How Pacquiao can upset Mayweather)

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13 Comments

  1. We shall see what will happen in the ring. We can talk and write about this fight all we want but we do not know what will happen.On May 2nd or May 3rd in the Philippines – we will see the result of the fight.

  2. i guess manny will win the fight, his determination, his heart, being a true blood filipino
    will pave the way in beating the very boastful mayweather!

  3. Dan Balantakbo on

    Pacman’s taking long minutes to regain consciousness after hitting the canvass in his last fight with Marquez to me is ominous. His brain( of course he has) has taken a toll after long years of battery and abuse, in real fight and practices. His family should be ready for the morbid result of this fight where he and handlers failed to size up his formidable opponent. He will go down .. and lose miserably. We’ll it’s all about the money anyway.

  4. As for me my money goes to manny and my heart to mommy D….Maywhooo? tell it to the somalian marines.

    Glory be to all Kabayans on May 2, 2015…the redemption day reads in the newspapers “AMERICAN SURRENDERS TO FILIPINO”. A very nice passage to RP history.

  5. Pacquiao has the speed and he has the power and most of all he is hungrier than Floyd. Manny will win!! Wanna bet??

    • bernardo..you are the one that don’t have brain and style. pacman is filthy rich and no. 1 pound for pound boxer in the world….

  6. Well done this writer you bought out some facts that most of us didnt know. Im impressed.
    In the fight im quite sure manny will land some punches sometimes. If he lands a huge punch floyd could be in trouble. But the same as you i see manny has to be very very careful as floyds straight right is no cheap shot. It could very easily ko manny. Im not sure now how mannys chin will hold up to those straight right hands. In 2009 he still had a great chin, but today & looking at his low opposition ( & they were hand picked for their lack of power ) is or hasnt shown us how mannys chin is since jmm exposed it. Then that night when jmm exposed it well jmm was only selected as they thought at the full welterweight limit ( no catcweight ) & jmm being 40 years old that manny had everything in his favour for a ko win.
    I think floyd wins but im unsure if its inside the distance or on points.

  7. Manny did all his assignment, conditioning, training, etc. like anyone else in any given sports only one will emerge victorious. The whole country is hoping and praying in the end that Bayless will raise his hand. On top of that Let God himself do His homework.

  8. Good observation but we must also remember that pacquiao is a lot different from almost all the fighter mayweather fight before that is also the reason why it take so long for mayweather to make this fight Happened.

    • Jacinto Decena on

      You are very much right, mayweather never wanted to fight pacquiao because he knows his chances of beating pacquiao is less compare to other boxers he had beaten.