Why no elections but a political upheaval or even a revolution

26

“For those who believe, no explanation is necessary; for those who do not believe, no explanation is possible.” 
– A famous quote  attributed to either Thomas Aquinas,  Stuart Chase, or Ignatius de Loyola

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IN my column last Thursday, I promised to give the various emerging scenarios tending to indicate that there will be no elections on May 12, 2016. To the overwhelming majority who do not study the drift of events or the contentious struggle for national positioning, the idea appears incredible, after all the powerful forces in the country mandate that elections will be held as provided by law.

But this is a country where the current law is that of the lawless—a lawless President, a lawless Congress and other lawless institutions. We do not have a rule of law; we have the rule of low. It is as simple as that so it is not improbable that the emerging scenarios, even as the election campaign is waged with high octane ferocity, may turn out to be lawless, based on traditional standards.

Emerging scenarios

Noynoy option scenario: The popular contention is that President Noynoy will follow the Gloria Arroyo precedent, if Mar Roxas or Grace Poe loses in the election. He will not only have a brace on his neck, he could just have a rope around his neck or a guillotine falling on it. Noynoy, the scared Asperger syndrome, will not allow that to happen. So what is the Noynoy option? It is to declare martial law and suspend the elections. He might just do that. So he will do a Marcos but may not be able to do it as successfully as Marcos unless he conscripts the Marcos martial law czar –Juan Ponce Enrile – who is still swaggering around in the Senate and national stage as though he would be around with the talisman of living forever like Count Dracula.

Jojo Binay scenario: Vice President Jojo who has the Enrile swagger, a useless imitation because of his height and color, has a Niagara of plunder and graft and corruption cases against him and his family, leaving a pollutant stench like that of the Pasig River. Anybody who thinks he still can win the presidency must be having a nightmare. But of course, he might just be convinced by the useless polluted surveys of SWS and Pulse Asia that he would forego any other option than the election. To assume that is to contend that Binay must either be dense or stupid or both. But Jojo is not anyone of that. He is ambitious and pragmatic. As he is, the better option of Jojo is for Noynoy to disappear between now and the election. Since he is the successor to Noynoy, he would become President with that contingency, in which case, there would be no elections. How he could do it, is anybody’s guess. It may not be amiss to mention here the Jojo is a reserved colonel of the Marines with a huge following among those in the active service, a significant band of policemen behind him, not to speak of the Boy Scouts.

Grace Poe scenario: It is quite obvious that the reigning traditional institutional forces are against her. With that, it is not difficult to assume that the Supreme Court may disqualify her before the elections. If that happens, she has formidable forces behind her. Her disqualification, if it comes, will be treated by her followers and even by those who are not her avid followers as grave injustice. And if that happens, it is again not improbable for her followers to move for an Edsa-type upheaval which could trigger a no-election situation.

Duterte scenario: If the Comelec will be consistent, it is inevitable that Duterte will be disqualified meaning his certificate of candidacy will be cancelled. He is on the same boat as Grace Poe. If Grace Poe’s certificate of candidacy will be cancelled by the Supreme Court, it is almost safe to assume that he would find himself in the same predicament as Grace Poe. Considering that the followers of Duterte are more fanatical than those of others and considering further that Duterte has decreed over and over again that he will proclaim a revolutionary government the moment he gets elected President, it is rational to assume that his leaders and followers will destabilize the country with an effort to install Duterte as President – come hell or high water.

The x-factor scenario: This is the most imponderable scenario. Nobody knows the components of the X-Factor – I do not know it, you don’t know it. Greater is our problem because we do not know who are the leaders or the leader. Still baffling is that we do not know their program, their motives. Are they revolutionaries? If so, what type of revolutionaries are they? Only the unraveling events will tell. For now, they are in the shadows, in silent corners – unidentified and mysterious.

Interesting times

These are really interesting times, as the Chinese define periods like ours. They befuddle, they mystify, they overwhelm. But as participants in the determination of our national destiny, it is appropriate to inform the self-proclaimed gods of the present political and economic system that they are not the only decision-makers in this country. Lingering in the shadows or intense in their public avowals are those who may be one in every million of Filipinos, who are strategic decision-makers, too. They also can determine the destiny of this country – more powerful than the President or Lucio Tan or Andrew Tan or Henry Sy or Fernando Zobel or Enrique Razon. Why, because the man operates outside the box. The men inside the box are normally blind to emerging imperceptible realities. They wallow in their own illusions!

The man outside the box is the thinker, the planner, the dreamer and the man who makes things happen consistent with his dreams. As one prescient observer once wrote – a constitutionalist by day, a Trotskyite by night meaning a revolutionary who dreams dreams. It is as mysterious as it sounds, but it is as plain as broad daylight.

The fork of the road

We really are at the fork of the road – a choice is to be made. Which is which – election or a peaceful constitutional revolution? Election cannot be the appropriate choice because it would not bring meaningful changes in our country and in the lives of our citizen. Evil is the election; good is the constitutional peaceful revolution. But if a peaceful constitutional revolution does not happen, a violent revolution will break out – it is just a matter of time.

But what about the elections of May 12, 2016? I don’t think it will come. The contradicting elements are so overwhelming that expecting the elections is as irrational as a clean and an honest election in our country now. You know it, I know it – we all know it, kids!

So you know the intelligent option – the revolution! But if I am proved wrong in my prediction, and election does come – there is one remaining intelligent option – ROY SENERES, the champion of the OFW, the contractual employees and the downtrodden Filipinos!

A meaningful and joyous New Year to everyone who loves God and this country! Congratulations to my fellow Mindanaoan – Miss Universe Pia Wurtzbach! Bravo for the tradition of excellence.

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26 Comments

  1. the No Election scenario is a very remote possibility. But Noynoy going behind bars once he is out of Malacanang is a very big probability.

  2. I pray that all of you are wrong. These scenarios will destroy our country. This country with all the hoodlums and professional assassins is still my country and I I love this country. I hope that this will just be a regular peaceful election and some will win and some will lose. That is life and to those who will lose, do not take it his event personally. It is just an election.

  3. The only alternatives for roxas to win is with no election.So all of us want to have an election if there will bw an election, Binay and marcos will win the President and the vice presidency.so pass on this is the prediction of unknown that reveals the election outcome for may 9,2016 election.

  4. Mariano Patalinjug on

    Yonkers, New York
    26 Dec.2015

    With all due respect to noted columnist and politician HOMOBONO ADAZA, his dark forebodings will not come to pass

    There will be relatively peaceful elections May next year–and, more likely than not, JEJOMAR BINAY will come out President of the Philippines.

    President Aquino will not and cannot be entertaining dark thoughts of declaring Martial Law, ala Ferdinand E. Marcos. He is a respecter of the Law and of the Constitution and when JEJOMAR BINAY takes his Oath of Office as President, he will go quietly into retirement, personally in the belief that he left the Philippines a better place than on the day he took his Oath of Office as President.

    That, of course, will be President Aquino understandably deluding himself because CORRUPTION and POVERTY, the twin scourges of every administration since 1946, would still be very much around by that time.

    With those thoughts out of the way, there will be NO REVOLUTION, whether the “Constitutional” variety as espoused by its conspicuous and vociferous proponent HOMOBONO ADAZA, or the JACOBIN-TYPE REVOLUTION like the French Revolution of 1789 or the Bolshevik Revolution of 1917.

    Life in the Philippines will go on merrily on, as usual.

    MARIANO PATALINJUG
    patalinjugmar@gmail.com

  5. The author is a veteran of Philippine politics, as he wrote this there are things that he knows that we ordinary people do not. we are programmed through media thru soap opera primetime, and the news. what the eyes can see, and the ears can hear the mind believes…. Our freedom of the press are polluted to the highest bidder. Our education system is programmed by our long life oligarchs to be slaves, workers, and make entrepreneurs that makes the capitalist richer. and our constitution is made by thesame people We made a revolution financed by this oligarchs to change our leadership because that president won’t listen to their demands… increase in Electric, water, Noerthexpressway, NO to ZTE, minning, natural gas, and even oil and even Land reforms the Hacienda and many more… we are running in circles and the very root is greed, power, vanity…this is why Andres Bonifacio, Gen. Luna, Sakay, died or murdered by this same club and GMA locked up, and Ferdinand Marcos Sr. became a ruthless dictator in history books, thats how powerful they are, you can hear them say..we owned this country. Presidents have a 6 year = 1 term, this oligarchs have a lifetime…. we need that revolution now an authentic one…ang tunay na progresibong mapayapang rebolusyon ,mag simula tayo sa ating sarili, buksan natin ang ating mga mata, ialay natin ang ating galing, ang ating talino ang ating lakas, ang ating pananampalataya para sa tunay na pagbabago para sa muanlad at progresibong Pilipinas, Eto ay kaya nating makamtan kasama ko ikaw, kayo, sila,, tayo, mag kaisa…. mabuhay kayong lahat.

  6. Hahaha!para din si pope francis magsalita kayo,ang labo!
    Sabi ni pope,dapat madaliin ang pagdedesisyon sa divorsyo,sino daw siya para hatulan ang mga bakla, tomboy!kailangan na iadopt ang aral ngayon at ang sumusunod ng buong-buo sa bible ay evil at ang pagpapako ni Cristo sa krus ay walang saysay, ngayon sasabihin niya bumalik ang tao sa dating aral na kinagisnan!
    Kung evil ang election,paanong hindi magiging evil ang sinasabi ninyo na peaceful constitutional reform?kailangan din piliin kung Sino ang mamumuno sa itatayo ninyong gobyerno,lahat ng tao papayag ba sa appointed ninyo!diba dapat din pagbotohan yan!

  7. It seems that the prophecy about this dude with “asparagus (I mean asperger) syndrome” is being fulfilled day by day! He will be the main reason and cause of the forthcoming chaos and lawlessness in our country the likes of which we haven’t encountered before. Damn and Damn it to hell.

  8. I believe you fought Pres Marcos with every sinew in your body … Look what you got after….. We have gone to he dogs … We have poverty illetrecy no respect for our leaders who lead us to hell on a shprtcut

  9. I believe you cought Pres Marcos with every sinew in your body … Look what you got after….. We have gone to he dogs … We have po defy illeterary no respect for our leaders who lead us to hell

  10. Bert O. Romero on

    Mr. Adaza, have you tried writing political novels? Why don’t you try it? You will be good in it.

    • Yeah, he should try it. He is now a good conjurer of nightmares that aren’t there. A good crier of illusory ramblings. That is what Mr. Adaza has become. An astrologer of sort that plague the airwaves and tv screens each year with their imaginary vibes. Through the years he had floated a lot of twisted scenarios. None of them came to passed of course as he is neither a prophet nor an angel of sort. A witch doctor perhaps in the height of uttering his last piece of encantation, summoning a world of illusions where fictitious hordes of Huns are there to usher in an alternate world of his own creation. It’s sad really. I’m a Mindanaoan too and have seen and heard him through the dark days of Martial Law and the height of Maoist insurgency, both of which played a devastating role in destroying the Philippine Republic that was able to rise above the horrors of WWII. But those days were long gone. What we have now is not even a shadow of his former self… just a charlatan crying wolf every time he sees a dog howling. It’s a pity really!

  11. Yes, that is my prediction thru careful analysis Pnoy will declare Martial Law with concurrence of of rubber stamp Drilon Senate and few weeks thereafter REVOLUTIONARY GOVERNMENT WITH REVOLUTIONARY FREEDOM CONSTITUTION, Yes, that is why he was not into hurry with BILATERAL TALKS with China over the WPS/SCS. China was dangling Billions of Dollars in trade with RP just to give China access to exploit resources in our EEZ. My goodness, naman. . .

    What can we expect with the Aquino’s nothing, except for hatred, vengeance and blame their predecessors. Yes its true started during the evil dictator cory with her yellow brigade, blaming pres. marcos the alleged that he was a dictator when in fact it is Constitutional Authoritarianism, he sets up the fundamental for our country to be industrialized by building bataan nuclear power plant, iligan city integrated steel mills, complete car’s body stamping plants, and other monuments. All government instrumentalities are working, particularly the courts.

    But what the Evil Dictator did although it was a short stint declare REVOLUTIONARY GOVERNMENT WITH REVOLUTIONARY CONSTITUTION, with this she kicked out her VP Laurel and all government elected officials, mothballed bataan nuclear power plant, uncontrolled importation of power generators to justify alleged nationwide blackouts, construction of unclean coal fired power plants, without compensation payment giving people’s owned meralco, allowing to rot monuments, what she did MASSACRE of people rallyist in Mendiola with Pres. Marcos they were only dispersed for being unruly and in Hacienda Luisita, before ending her term i office she mustered the PSALM LAW, all of this gave rise to OLIGARCHS to become more richer and systematically putting her much love the filipino people in quagmire of poverty (putikan ng kahirapan).

    During Pnoy it is much worst, it is a copy cat government from 1986 to 1992, both has nothing to brag about monuments, except this much of true plunder of economy, during Pres. Marcos national budget more or less Php30 billion, during evil dictator at the start it was about more or less Php100 billion, now Pnoy about to end his suspected fraud term of office staggering Php 1 trillion plus my goodness, now the OLIGARCHS became DOLLAR BILLIONAIRES, again he elevated his much love filipino people quagmire of poverty (alkitran ng kahirapan).

    Now, atrocities committed by Pres. Marcos none except it was real law enforcements to enforce the law against unruly, atrocities committed by the left like mass purging of suspected spies, kidnapping, force disappearance blame to Pres. Marcos, who committed Massacres it was Pres. Marcos my goodness, look at the records of the Aquinos.

    • If Pnoy will declare martial law with the concurrence of Drillon both of them will receive bullets behind their heads.

    • @Tesboy, You sound like a true or a paid Marcos loyalist who has selective amnesia. It was reported by the prestigious New York Times after Marcos was deposed by a popular and peaceful EDSA uprising that Marcos plundered BILLIONS of dollars from the Philippines sovereign treasury.

      Marcos loyalists refuse to believe that Marcos was a plunderer yet the Philippine government has recovered hundreds of millions of dollars from Marcos’ foreign bank accounts.

      Marcos tries to build the Bataan nuclearpower plant but again, as reported by the international press, the price of the power plant doubled due to Marcos’ reported corrupt practices.

      Constitutional authotarianism is an oxymoron. Marcos controlled everything in the government. There was no lawful constitution during Marcos’ unlawful and brutal dictatorship. Marcos was “the law,” and was unconstitutional at that.

      Many Filipinos old enough to have witnesed Marcos’ largasse say Marcos was the worst thing to have happened to the Philippines.

      The Philippines was the SECOND RICHEST COUNTRY in Asia before Marcod became prsesident.

      By the time Marcos was ousted, the Philippines was called THE SICK MAN OF ASIA because Marcos allegely so badly mismanaged the country’s economy during his dictatorship as reported by the international press.

      What the Philippines needs are competent, highly educated, smart, hard working and most important of all, the Philippines needs HONEST leaders and honest rank and file government employees.

    • Its nice to see that there are still some Filipinos that also knows the real history of the Philippines

      Unfortunately, our history books were all tainted.

  12. I agree , a PEACEFUL Revolution must happen NOW in the Philippines or certainly a bloody revolution WILL occur in the near future. For the sake of ALL Filipinos WE CAN NOT KEEP TAKING THE SAME PATH. !!!!!

  13. It’s been 70 years since the Philippines was liberated at the end of WW2. That has been a long time of peace and a chance at prosperity, a chance of the Filipinos to its own so called “gilded age”, but sadly, it happened only to a few. The country’s reconstruction period at the end of WW2 did not produce a strong middle class, which was totally eroded during the Marcos regime.

    Mr. Adaza’s scenarios are all possibilities and why do I agree with him. I think 70 years of peace is a long time and in the mind of war planners, it seem ages. I think the Philippines is ripe not only for a prolonged all out revolution but a war reminiscent of WW2. War will save the country from its own moral and spiritual decay, environmental decay, overpopulation and other social ills that in a normal or constitutional circumstance can not be fixed.

    Would a biblical “Noah’s Flood” be the best answer? Anything that will take out the corrupt is good enough for the country.

    • @LA702, Be careful what you wish for because you just may get it.

      The Philippines may be suffer the fate of some of the countries in the Middle East with millions dead and millions of refugees. It takes decades to rebuild shattered a society and economy.

      Filipinos do not deserve any more sufferings. What the country needs is a much better education system. A well educated populace will tend to vote wisely. Therefore there will be more qualified people who will be running the government and there will be less corrupt politicians and less incompetent celebrities being elected.

      Amen.

  14. It is probably an outside event , WW3?, which would cause a no-el scenario but with an unknown strongman would appear and take charge of the government and would probably be ruthless in rooting out corruption and corrupt officials, similar to the vision of St. Malachy.

  15. The country can’t go on with the same government. A new government is needed. We can not go on with the same congress and senate and government agencies that are corrupt to the bone. We need leaders that have balls to install a new government and constitution based on Federalism. Our government are run by syndicates that are sanctioned by President Aquino. The same yellow people that are behind the brainwashing of our people for 30 years. ABS-CBN is one of the guilty who leads our people to ignorance. The people should wake up to the fact that EDSA happened not because of cory, it is because the Reagan administration (Reagan was just following a script written by the people who were really running the administration) plan is to install democratic governments around the world including Nicaragua and the Middle East.

    We know what happened. Our country are overrun by oligarch and friends, family members who are thieves. Corrupt politicians that are doing the bidding of their master the Aquino and Cojuangco whose grandmother Ysidra Cojuangco is the embezzler of the Revolutionary treasury and their grandfather Benigno Aquino Sr who was a traitor or makapili during the Japanese occupation. Their family is still living and enjoying from the blood and hopes of the farmers that should have been given the Luisita Hacienda.

    The next government must take away the hacienda without the compensation to the Cojuangcos and Aquinos. And a court should also determine how much the Cojuangcos owe the Filipino people since the time the haciendas should have been transfered to the farmers.

  16. That made Marcos the lesser of all possible evils which you are one of the personalities that wants him out. Nice Job.

    • Let us admit that there are some good things in the past we have considered as “bad” during that time because we are not “satisfied” or did not see them all yet, until something much worse came in the present.

      That made Marcos seems to be the “greatest” president, if he will be compared to Cory and Noynoy.