“For those who believe, no explanation is necessary; for those who do not believe, no explanation is possible.”
– A famous quote attributed to either Thomas Aquinas, Stuart Chase, or Ignatius de Loyola
IN my column last Thursday, I promised to give the various emerging scenarios tending to indicate that there will be no elections on May 12, 2016. To the overwhelming majority who do not study the drift of events or the contentious struggle for national positioning, the idea appears incredible, after all the powerful forces in the country mandate that elections will be held as provided by law.
But this is a country where the current law is that of the lawless—a lawless President, a lawless Congress and other lawless institutions. We do not have a rule of law; we have the rule of low. It is as simple as that so it is not improbable that the emerging scenarios, even as the election campaign is waged with high octane ferocity, may turn out to be lawless, based on traditional standards.
Noynoy option scenario: The popular contention is that President Noynoy will follow the Gloria Arroyo precedent, if Mar Roxas or Grace Poe loses in the election. He will not only have a brace on his neck, he could just have a rope around his neck or a guillotine falling on it. Noynoy, the scared Asperger syndrome, will not allow that to happen. So what is the Noynoy option? It is to declare martial law and suspend the elections. He might just do that. So he will do a Marcos but may not be able to do it as successfully as Marcos unless he conscripts the Marcos martial law czar –Juan Ponce Enrile – who is still swaggering around in the Senate and national stage as though he would be around with the talisman of living forever like Count Dracula.
Jojo Binay scenario: Vice President Jojo who has the Enrile swagger, a useless imitation because of his height and color, has a Niagara of plunder and graft and corruption cases against him and his family, leaving a pollutant stench like that of the Pasig River. Anybody who thinks he still can win the presidency must be having a nightmare. But of course, he might just be convinced by the useless polluted surveys of SWS and Pulse Asia that he would forego any other option than the election. To assume that is to contend that Binay must either be dense or stupid or both. But Jojo is not anyone of that. He is ambitious and pragmatic. As he is, the better option of Jojo is for Noynoy to disappear between now and the election. Since he is the successor to Noynoy, he would become President with that contingency, in which case, there would be no elections. How he could do it, is anybody’s guess. It may not be amiss to mention here the Jojo is a reserved colonel of the Marines with a huge following among those in the active service, a significant band of policemen behind him, not to speak of the Boy Scouts.
Grace Poe scenario: It is quite obvious that the reigning traditional institutional forces are against her. With that, it is not difficult to assume that the Supreme Court may disqualify her before the elections. If that happens, she has formidable forces behind her. Her disqualification, if it comes, will be treated by her followers and even by those who are not her avid followers as grave injustice. And if that happens, it is again not improbable for her followers to move for an Edsa-type upheaval which could trigger a no-election situation.
Duterte scenario: If the Comelec will be consistent, it is inevitable that Duterte will be disqualified meaning his certificate of candidacy will be cancelled. He is on the same boat as Grace Poe. If Grace Poe’s certificate of candidacy will be cancelled by the Supreme Court, it is almost safe to assume that he would find himself in the same predicament as Grace Poe. Considering that the followers of Duterte are more fanatical than those of others and considering further that Duterte has decreed over and over again that he will proclaim a revolutionary government the moment he gets elected President, it is rational to assume that his leaders and followers will destabilize the country with an effort to install Duterte as President – come hell or high water.
The x-factor scenario: This is the most imponderable scenario. Nobody knows the components of the X-Factor – I do not know it, you don’t know it. Greater is our problem because we do not know who are the leaders or the leader. Still baffling is that we do not know their program, their motives. Are they revolutionaries? If so, what type of revolutionaries are they? Only the unraveling events will tell. For now, they are in the shadows, in silent corners – unidentified and mysterious.
These are really interesting times, as the Chinese define periods like ours. They befuddle, they mystify, they overwhelm. But as participants in the determination of our national destiny, it is appropriate to inform the self-proclaimed gods of the present political and economic system that they are not the only decision-makers in this country. Lingering in the shadows or intense in their public avowals are those who may be one in every million of Filipinos, who are strategic decision-makers, too. They also can determine the destiny of this country – more powerful than the President or Lucio Tan or Andrew Tan or Henry Sy or Fernando Zobel or Enrique Razon. Why, because the man operates outside the box. The men inside the box are normally blind to emerging imperceptible realities. They wallow in their own illusions!
The man outside the box is the thinker, the planner, the dreamer and the man who makes things happen consistent with his dreams. As one prescient observer once wrote – a constitutionalist by day, a Trotskyite by night meaning a revolutionary who dreams dreams. It is as mysterious as it sounds, but it is as plain as broad daylight.
The fork of the road
We really are at the fork of the road – a choice is to be made. Which is which – election or a peaceful constitutional revolution? Election cannot be the appropriate choice because it would not bring meaningful changes in our country and in the lives of our citizen. Evil is the election; good is the constitutional peaceful revolution. But if a peaceful constitutional revolution does not happen, a violent revolution will break out – it is just a matter of time.
But what about the elections of May 12, 2016? I don’t think it will come. The contradicting elements are so overwhelming that expecting the elections is as irrational as a clean and an honest election in our country now. You know it, I know it – we all know it, kids!
So you know the intelligent option – the revolution! But if I am proved wrong in my prediction, and election does come – there is one remaining intelligent option – ROY SENERES, the champion of the OFW, the contractual employees and the downtrodden Filipinos!
A meaningful and joyous New Year to everyone who loves God and this country! Congratulations to my fellow Mindanaoan – Miss Universe Pia Wurtzbach! Bravo for the tradition of excellence.