Why Vice President Jejomar Binay will win

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Early in the year I began expressing through the social wire my initial views on the candidacy of Vice President Jejomar C. Binay for President. For sheer want in specifics on the demolition job being undertaken against him, I could only resort to citing historical patterns by way of contributing to his cause. Jojo and I had an interlude of camaraderie in the past, and this interlude, no matter how brief, had prompted me to do something for him for old time’s sake.

I cited three modes of succession to the presidency undergone by the country. The first mode, the most popular one, is election. The second mode, power grab by the successor. The third mode, death of the incumbent.

Of the third case, there have been two occasions. One was the death of President Manuel Roxas in 1948 and then Vice President Elpidio Quirino succeeded him. Another was the death of President Ramon Magsaysay in a plane crash in 1957 and Vice President Carlos P. Garcia took over.

Of the second case, the first time was the power grab by Cory from President Ferdinand E. Marcos in the EDSA uprising in 1986, and the second time was the military breakaway that resulted in the removal from office of President Joseph Ejercito Estrada and the infamous installation by Supreme Court Chief Justice Hilario Davide of then Vice President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo as president.


We elaborate on the first case because it has been the democratic means of changing Philippine presidents, or at least that’s how it has been pictured to us, and it is the means currently ongoing and hence deserving the most attention now.

Without any attempt at all to hide my sympathies for Jojo, I nonetheless tried my best to be objective about the matter of him being the historically-destined one to succeed to the presidency.

To begin with, it is in the psyche of electorates that the next president is the sitting vice president. I don’t pretend to any expertise at socio-psychology or some such by which to be able to explain this phenomenon. I just put it in terms of a layman’s understanding that in many sphere’s of social living, people get disciplined on the principle of next-in-line: the queue at the cashier’s counter in supermarkets, at the movie theater ticket windows, at transport terminals, the examples are many. In succession to authority in the family, when the parents are gone, the eldest of the children becomes the family head – and that, by no force of law, is the tradition.

History itself bears me out in standing by this contention.

No vice president who ran for president has lost. Vice President Diosdado Macapagal ran for president in 1961 and won. Vice President Joseph Ejercito Estrada ran for president in 1998 and won.

When I made this contention on Twitter, somebody was quick to point out that Vice President Salvador P. Laurel ran for president in 1992 and ended up at the cellar of the contest. I was quick to retort likewise that Laurel was not a duly-elected vice president in 1987 but a bogus one, like his president Cory, both of them having been forcibly rammed by America down the throat of the Filipino nation. Laurel does not fit in this reckoning and my contention remains unchallenged.

Now the country is into the fever of another electoral change in the presidency. Studying historical patterns of presidential elections, we notice the interesting detail that presidents have been coming only from three training grounds, if we may put it that way. What are these three?

First, indeed, is the Vice Presidency. Already cited are the cases of Vice President Diosdado Macapagal in 1961 and Vice President Joseph Ejercito Estrada in 1998. In fact, the very first president of the Republic of the Philippines, Manuel Roxas, must also fit into this category. Remember that when Roxas ran for president in 1946, he was the effective vice president of the preceding commonwealth government. President Manuel L. Quezon had already died then and Vice President Sergio Osmena must succeed him to the post, thus vacating the post of the vice president. Who would fill in the vacancy? The sitting Senate President, who else but Manuel Roxas.

In this regard, Manuel Roxas must also serve as the precursor of Senate Presidents succeeding to the presidency through election. Next Senate President to do so was the longest-serving President of the Philippines, Ferdinand E. Marcos, who was Senate President when he ran for President and won in 1965.

And the third historically proven training ground for Presidents is the Secretaryship of the Department of National Defense. First defense secretary to get elected president was Ramon Magsaysay in 1954, beating the sitting President Elpidio Quirino. Next was Fidel V. Ramos, who was Secretary of National Defense prior to winning the presidency in 1992.

A fluke in this pattern was the election of incumbent President Benigno C. Aquino 3rd , who was just a senator and just half-way through his term when he ran for president and won in 2010. But I personally rate this happening as still a consequence of the Cory presidency which in the first place I damn as bogus, hence any effect of which must likewise be bogus. The Benigno C. Aquino presidency simply highlights the utter corruption of the people’s consciousness of democracy, and if it sets at all another pattern for sitting a president, then that pattern should be no less condemnable than the barefaced power grab executed by Cory by which she frustrated the people’s will in the 1986 snap presidential poll.

Now, we take a close look at the current presidential contenders. Who among them conforms to the above-cited criteria?

We start from the bottom in the latest poll survey. Miriam Defensor Santiago is a senator, all right, but is not a Senate President. Besides, she bears the stigma of having lost not once but twice already in attempts at the presidency, and history bears out one outstanding characteristic of winning presidential candidates: virgin runners. It must be a truism, Miriam is no virgin – presidential candidate, that is.

Next is Manuel Roxas 2nd, who has been consistent in placing fourth in poll surveys. No cabinet member has ever won in a run for president except the Secretary of National Defense; he has headed the DPWH, DOTC and the DILG but never the DND. He will lose.

Then comes Grace Llamanzares, who for a time appeared headed for the fate that had proven true of Benigno C. Aquino 3rd (not a Senate President and just a senator half-way into his term but capitalizing on the death of his parent, Cory; Grace, too, just a senator, half-way into her term and capitalizing solely on the death of her parent, FPJ) until she ran into disqualification blues. She will lose early on.

Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte is the penultimate presidential aspirant in the reckoning. Will he win? He is neither a vice president, a senate president nor a secretary of national defense. No mayor has become president of the country overnight. History bares to us the fact that there has been just one case in which a mayor has risen to become President of the Republic of the Philippines – President Joseph Ejercito Estrada, formerly a mayor of San Juan. But Erap had to be vice president first.

That gives us the ultimate criterion for the last man standing – Vice President Jejomar C. Binay. Not only is he a Vice President, traditional heir to the presidency, but is also historically-destined to sit in that post. No vice president who ran for president ever lost – even against a sitting President. Vice President Diosdado Macapagal beat the incumbent President Carlos P. Garcia in 1961. In regard to Erap, Vice President Binay perfectly fits into the pattern of a mayor becoming vice president onward to winning the presidency.

And yet this ultimate criterion is what precisely makes winning the presidency not really just a question of historical pattern. Having spent long years at local governance, Vice President Binay has had a good grasp of the problems of his constituencies, has learned how to solve those problems, and he only needs to sit as president to make life good, as is his obsession now, for those constituencies no longer just on a local basis, as in Makati, but on national scale as well. This fact is well known to the Filipino people. They will make Vice President Jejomar C. Binay win.

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58 Comments

  1. MGA LOLS, if duterte alyas (DUDIRTY) will win this coming up elections 2016, patay na kayo lahat, I have research about him and I found out to his advocates:

    1. he’s allowing and stand for same sex marriage
    2.stand for divorce
    3. proposing to help bangsamoro to become one of our national basic law
    4. he wants a high rates of income tax

    and panget tingnan ko mayroon tayong ganitong patakaran or batas na kailangan png mag divorce ang bawat couple na para bang mg bf or gf kayo na kung magsawa na ay break up agad, hindi katulad sa annulment na kailangan sa proseson paraan.,,at pangalawa, papayag ba kayo na pwedeng mag asawa ang kapwa lalaki at kapwa babae?,,,at pangatlo kung ipasa ang bangsamoro, ano ang mgyayari sa atin kapag nasa kanan na ng palasyo ang kanang paa ng mga muslim…hindi ba iba sila kaysa sa atin…iba ang ugali nila dahil kunting kamalian mo lang patay kana agad..wala silang awa kung gumawa ng ano ano…at pang apat, kung mataas ang tax natin sa bilihin ano pa ang kakainin natin kong ang lahat nalang ng sahod natin ay mapupunta nalang sa gobyerno or sa mga businessman, sabi nga nya kailangan niya ng pera para panggastos sa anomang paraan para lumago at lumakas ang ating kupunan sa depensa ng ating bayan, na tinatawag nating mga weapon at bibili ng mamahaling mga gamit sa pakikipagdegma..diba maraming ng pera ang pilipinas tungkol jan..kung totoosin kaya na ng pilipinas bilhin yan…as for now i will vote binay.. kc para sa kanya. lahat tayo uunlad, tingnan mo ang makati dati na tila isang baryo lang at dahil sa sipag nya ang makati ngayon ang pinakamaulad at naitala ba sa ibang bansa na fast growing city in the world…hindi pwedeng patay nalang lage..walang maitulong yan, baka dumating ang panahon na gigirahen na tayo ng taga ibang bansa dahil sabi nga nya i will stand over spratly island ..baka doon magyayari na ang kagolohan dahil kalabanin nya ang china..ano ba ang kaya natin sa china..kung wala ang US pano na tayo,, baka iisipin natin na kaya tayo matapang dahil anjan ang US sa atin..wag ganun dapat kailang nating tumayo sa sarili nating mga paa

  2. Marcerlo B. Cabe on

    I believe that Jejomar C. Binay is winning for the 2016 May Local and National Elections as President of the Republic of the Philippines

  3. DOMINGO GARCIA,JR. on

    I have known VP Binay since our days in UP Diliman and during Martial Law.He was a human rights lawyer with Joker Arroyo and Rene Saguisag;were better known as “MABINI” He fought and fights for those who were arrested and kept in “safehouses” of the military.Many became “desamparados”, some were saved and jailed. These “service” are known by the children of those whom VP Binay saved. These children voted Binay as Vice-President, they will still vote him President.

  4. Napakahaba namang artikulo nito.ang sinabi lang mananalo ang manok nyang si binay dahil sa kasaysayan bukod kay vp laurel,lahat ng vp na tumakbo panalo.ang kaibahan lang lahat ng vp na yun walang kaso ng pagnanakaw na ayaw sagutin.kung saka sakali si binay ang gigiba sa pattern na yun.sayang

  5. Rosauro Feliciano on

    No doubt Binay will spend his questionable millions of pesos through the media to promote his candidacy believing that he could surely get them back when he will be the President of this corrupted country. However there is no amount of money to cure his reputation as a corrupt leader.

  6. Rosauro Feliciano on

    Duterte made biggest mistakes in his life by saying things against himself without thinking well, but even then the perceptions of the electorates whether he meant what he said or not, they will still cast their votes for him especially the Visayan electorates. In this coming national election we have three choices of evils if you wish. The most lesser evil is Duterte, the middle evil is Mar and the notorious evil is Binay. So for sure my vote is for Duterte.

  7. Binay is a far more cry by any other candidates and is truly well experience in terms of handling difficult problems, theres no other candidate to beat binay because he is deserving and destined to become the president of the republic of the philippines come 2016.

    • YES he will win… he conquered CDE class and not to far for the A’s and B’s… it would be a close fight… we should decide not based on the heresays of alleged corruption (who is not corrupt anyway) more than who is the cleanest amongst we should first weigh who is the most competent..to handle and most of all to lead this country.. c’mon guys!!

  8. If Vice President Binay is elected President, corruption charges will be dropped. As well as Binay Jr. Lucky fate. We help him win?

  9. Everyone knows that corrupt politicians are the biggest problem of the Philippines.

    What is needed in this ridiculous corrupt country is a new agency to check the lifestyles of all the politicians. This agency can’t be as inept, incompetent and powerless as the COA who was supposed to keep track of the peoples money.

    The COA only audits what they are allowed to by the president which makes them useless. The COA even helped themselves to the pork barrel funds (as if they didn’t know any better).

    Establish a new agency that will audit every politician and when found to be corrupt arrest and jail them(build some new jails to hold all those corrupt S.O.B’s), strip them of their wealth, throw their family onto the street and let them enjoy the world they made for everyone else.

  10. Philip Savior on

    I dont think so Binay will capture malacanang,First he must to do is answer all the allegations being thrown at him to clear his name of any corruption issue,I consider Rodrigo Duterte as the preferred one coming election day simple because Duterte is the tune of the time to solve the problems of the Country such as Illegal drugs,corruption and criminality.Duterte is the right person for that position.

    • We already experienced those pretending to be moralists, pretending honest, pretending “makatao”…etc. Look what happened to our country, it has gone to the dogs. DUTERTE for President for a change and chance for our country.

  11. If the author considers those who came with Cory as bogus, what does that say of his dear friend Binay ? Looks like your script is bogus Director.

  12. If the author considers all those who came with Cory as bogus, what does that say of his dear friend Binay.

  13. Rasdy Guiling on

    There is always a first time. First time that a sitting VP running for President will lose and Secretary not from DND will win the Presidency. Had the hidden wealth of the Binays not exposed, he could handily win the Presidency and your analysis would turn out to be true.

  14. Binay is the most qualified and educated to be the next president of the Philippines.
    compared to all the other candidates!

    Forget the Black Propaganda against him !

  15. The author wrote that former president Cory Aquino was “forcibly rammed by America down the throat of the Filipino nation.” Really? Is the author suffering from selective dementia? Has the author forgotten that millions of Filipinos had had enough of the abuses of the dictatorship and allege massive corruption of Marcos and it resulted in the most popular but peaceful revolution the whole world has witnessed in the latter half of the last century?

    That People Power Revolution was partly the inspiration of the former communist countries in Eastern Europe to break away from communism’s grip on human rights and freedom of speech.

    The author totally ignored the allege corruption of Jejomar Binay to the tune of billions of pesos, and Binay’s own son is also allegely embroiled in government corruption.

    If Jejomar Binay will become the next president of the Philippines, then the country could be likened to the massively destructive firecracker labelled “Goodbye Philippines.” The consequences of a Binay presidency are truly scary.

    Goodbye Philippines.

  16. I think Jojo will win because he is the real bet of benigno. Even the sisters of benigno prefers Jojo. With our culture of “tang na loob” and Jojo owing his political career to quo rhee, I do not think Jojo can put benigno behind bars. Those allegations of the three stooges were allowed and hyped (remember Goebbels) to make people believe that benigno is “two wad na dung” and hates corruption but reality shows that benigno has become the traditional politician allowing allies to help themselves. Grace is a smokescreen and the mama’s boy is just a balloon. But all of these are on the assumption that there will be an election.

    If Grace is DQed by the SC, someone may fan unrest to justify martial law. If the SC saves her, the people will also rant against the justices which creates civil unrest and that may also justify martial law. People seem to forget that the tsayna intrusions are now in a very alarming proportion.

  17. Mr. Samonte you are so biased. Filipinos nowadays are very much different from the Filipinos of twenty years ago. Our people are more aware and intelligent enough to vote who will run the country to prosperity. Definitely no to BINAY…by not facing the senate about his corruption is tantamount that he is guilty of the crime. Daang Matuwid looks like on the right path. We will sow the benefit of it in the coming years if the next president will not change the plans. I hope Karma comes to those who will manipulate the results of the coming election.

  18. well mr samonte, do not forget for a moment that boy pickup has a secret weapon called the magical hocus pcos machines of comelec-smartmatic gang. he will use even the conditional cash transfer program of dinkydoo to get the votes. in effect we wil as taxpayers be financing boy pickup’s vote buying. do not forget that dinkydoo has P60BILLION, if i am not mistaken, as bribe money to buy votes for boy pickup. THE FACT REMAINS THAT WE DO NOT HAVE A QUALITY PERSONALITIES TO CHOOSE FROM – one is perceived to be corrupt, one is a fake pilipino, one is said to be a human rights violator and the other sick with cancer.

  19. I think Mar Roxas will win. He has the experience, qualification and high moral value amongst the candidates. Binay has corruption in his luggage including nepotism.
    If nancy, Abigael and Jun jun give up their positions in government then I will agree that his name will be cleared of any unethical behaviors.

  20. Mr. Samonte:
    How much money did you get paid for this piece? You are a disgrace to your profession, if you call yourself a Journalist. The reason corruption in the Philippines is so rampant and unabated is because of Journalists who easily look the other way when the price is right instead of telling the truth.

  21. Bert O. Romero on

    You cited Erap as the historical model for VP BINAY to become president : being a mayor first, then becoming a vice- president before elected president. Erap’s plunder cases were brought against him while he was president. Binay’s plunder and corruption cases were brought against him while still campaigning for the presidency. Does’nt this make a difference?

    • Yes. No pattern is set in stone. Duterte could have easily bucked the trend too, but one, he destroyed his image with all these stupid things he did and two, he destroyed his candidacy with that silly COC of his lol
      With Duterte most likely out, we are back to the traditional system. If LP gets in and takes over SC, its true, they will take over the country forever.

  22. With all due respect, your arguments are fallacious. With regard to your historical basis on your analysis, not just because a veep is next in line would entitle him as a matter of right or pattern to succession. Your argument would have been correct had the succession been by virtue of death or permanent incapacity of the president. However, this is election and, sinilar to boxing, the outcome mught upset anybody by surprise.

  23. Magka kulay n nga kayo ni binay, parehas kayo galing sa DILIM.. pag si binay na nanalo baka mag ka edsa 3.. yung totoong edsa 3

  24. Yes, I agree with you Mr. Samonte.
    I believe that the accusations hurled against the VP are unfounded.
    I am not convince on the accussations of the Troika.
    I will vote for VP BINAY!

  25. I am a fan of Mar Roxas but I pity him. Events are not in is favor. This early I congratulate Binay as next President.

  26. You forgot it is the smartmatic hocus pocus that decides who wins! And if binay wins I will have the satisfaction that I did not vote for him!

    • Running a city is different from running a country. So ruling out emotions, what is your basis to proclaim confidently that Duterte will win?

    • Wilfredo Flores on

      Things might change this time since I don’t believe in the pattern of history. If ever Vice will win its because.of the electorate.

  27. I hope Filipino voters will be intelligent enough to decide who the next President of the Philippines will be. There are quite a few qualified aspirants but it makes everyone wonder whether the dwarf and muchacho driver houseboy Binay is really to be reckoned as Presidential material after being charged with graft and corruption.
    It brings to mind why he has repeatedly hang on as president of the Phil. Boy Scouts only for us to know how he has made millions.
    The only ones I see drum beating for him are paid lackeys, ordinary and money greedy columnists who does nothing but extol his miniature virtues.
    Supposedly I believe he is confident in winning not because of what the surveys show but rather assurances from his financial backers who are only after their own vested self interest.

    • If you believe the dictum that a man is innocent unless proven otherwise, all allegations against Jojo remains as hearsay. Just for logic’s sake and assuming without admitting that Jojo skimmed government coffers based on those charges of the three stooges, what makes you think that you are innocent if I pay the NBI, judges and the press with P20M to say you are a drug lord with headlines screaming on the national dailies?

    • I resent the fact that you have lumped me (and probably a large number of others similar to myself and in smilar professions and capabilities as myself) as paid lackeys.

      I am a social development consultant, having worked on projects of World Bank and other international agencies. I have experienced working with local government units, and worked for nearly a decade in the various offices of Malacanang under various posts. I think that declaration (and obviously the use of language as well) will show that I am not certainly one of your “paid lackeys”.

      But I am for Binay. I have seen how Makati governs itself, with DILG itself (and other international groups as well) awarding various commendations on the manner, style and effectiveness of Makati’s governance, which cannot be attributed merely to the fact of Ayala’s presence, but to the actual ability of the people that manages it: Binay and his team.

      So, please, do not assume that merely because you (and the entire phalanx of blind, ineffectual yellowtards and nincompoops) believe that the intelligentsia swallowed the propaganda of Binay’s corruption as God’s own truth, others do too. We may not be as noisy as you are, but we are probably more in numbers than you think we are. In fact, the recent surveys bringing Binay back to number 1 should be evidence enough that it is not just part of the intelligentsia that knows – the majority of ordinary, common-place citizens also knows: that Binay is, among the lis so far, the best and most prepared candidate, technically, operationally, and administratively speaking.

  28. I agree most of your reporting with the exception of Ramos who didn’t win the election. He won the election because of the DAGDAG BAWAS of votes.

  29. Mr. Samonte, thank you for the article but personally, I believe that there was divine intervention in a way when Cory died and her death paved the way for the Filipinos’ search for a leader who is not corrupt and will listen to the voice and sentiments of the masses. But it turned out, I think, that because Pnoy has had experienced Philippine politics as a congressman and senator prior to his election in 2010 as Philippine president, he chose the stance of a traditional politician in order to finish his term in 2016. The corruption of his KKK members and other heads of government agencies was just a by-product of the perception of his appointed cabinet officials that he is not decisive enough to bring reforms. Pnoy tolerated corruption by his friends, appointees and people probably close to him because his main objective was to finish his 6-year term. Filipinos were clamoring for a Philippine LEE KWAN YEW to solve our country’s problems.
    BIG QUESTION- Who among the current presidential candidates has the sense of patriotism to build our country without indulging in corrupt practices? Allow me to say that this could happen when the pork barrel of politicians is eliminated.

  30. Jerrysal Mangaoang on

    Who is this Mauro Gia Samonte? You talked of a historical pattern; although you discredited it towards the end of your column.The demolition against Binay is not simply demolition, unless you prove otherwise. At this point he should go to jail period. I have a friend who said he’ll vote for Binay… Pare pareho naman daw magnanakaw mga uupo. I hope Poe or Duterte is not. But at least my friend has a reason to vote for Binay.

    • Shouldn’t you be the one the prove that the demolition against Binay is just that a demolition unless you have evidence of the various charges against him, in which case you should come out and give them to the prosecution in the interest of justice?

    • If ever Grace wins, how do you think those who gave funding for her campaign which amount is in the billions will get back their investments? Do you think Grace will save her salaries? Isn’t it that she will also grant concessions or make a financier win a bidding or allow the financier to smuggle some commodities? It is the same all over the world and that is what realpolitik is.

  31. Marred Roxas has a very nil chance of winning the presidency. The probability that he may become president is when an immediate relative dies months before the election and Marred Roxas will get the sympathy of voters.

  32. adonis b. rocha on

    Mr. Mauro Samonte..dream on of your Nognog Binay ever becoming the next president of this benighted land. Your bloke is as rotten as can be and no amount of bogus Pulse Asia/ SWS surveys can condition the minds of all classes of electorates. He will be lucky not to go to jail if Mar Roxas wins…he better hide in his estate at Rosario Batangas or seek asylum in Africa. Your Jojo Binay has no balls, always “iwas pusoy” in attending the Senate inquiries and even challenged that case be brought to court…but when the Ombudsman filed a case, as usual your Nognog Binay cried political persecution???? Is this bloke the leader that you are ramming to the throats of the electorate…anyways you are paid by your patron to write a column for him, so what else do we expect…back off Mr. Mauro !!!! Gimme a break !

    • Rosauro Feliciano on

      What, Binay will be lucky not to go to jail if Roxas will not win the election? Well my friend if you think that Roxas will prosecute him if he (Roxas) will win the election for the presidency, then how much more if Duterte will win the election? Binay must pray real hard to win so neither Roxas nor Duterte will pin him down to answer for what he has been persecuted for by the people, which the Senate’s Blue Ribbon Committee wants him to explain that he is innocent.

  33. If Binay wins the country loose. There will be no change in the government. Patuloy ang pagnanakaw sa kaban ng bayan sa pamamagitan ng pagbibigay ng mga government contract sa mga kaibigan, kasangga at kamag anak. Binay belongs to the yellow crowd that brought shame corruptions in all levels of government. Justice must be served for the sake of the country. Benigno Aquino3 and his kkk will escape the jaws of justice if Binay wins. The next government must see to it that all the corrupts and their relatives who enrich themselves go to jail and their stolen wealth and properties go back to the Filipinos treasure.

  34. Mr. Samonte nag bubulag-bulagan ka kasi kaibigan mo si VP Binay. Pero kong hindi mo kaibigan si VP Binay seguro naka dilat ang mga mata mo. Hindi na stupido ang mga pinoy.

  35. Your analysis is correct. VP Binay will win this May handily because Mar Roxas made a mistake in choosing the right cabinet position that could propel him to the presidency. He could have steered tha housing projects of the National Housing Authority. With the full support of Pnoy, Mar could easily win the heart of the masses without politicking.

  36. Carlos de Castro on

    Jojo Binay if he reside in the USA will be long gone to prison for the very simple reason of not answering the corruption charges that was hurled to him or if he is in china he will be put to firing squad> IN the Phil. if they want him to be pres.,I cannot describe that. Maybe I can say thatfilipinos deserve the gov. that they are having/ Time magazine called the Filipinos the stupidest voter in the whole world when they elected the lady as senator rather than the other guy who is much much betterthan this lady

    • Palagi kayong nagsabi ng ganito at ganyan si binay makulong. Nasa kanila na ang kapangyarihan mahigit isang taong sarsuela sa senado pagkatapos hindi pa rin nakulong si binay hirap nyong intindihin.

  37. It will be Jojo Binay for President and Bongbong Marcos for vice President. This was the predictions by known psychics in the country,if there will be no cheating,maneuvering of votes and vote buying interferance from the COMELEC definitely the two candidates will win in the 2016 national election.