• Will Poe’s next poll bump be below 6% or above 9%?

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    Every political junkie (Poe supporter, Poe critic, Poe-agnostic) will have to admit this: The Supreme Court decision that allowed Senator Grace Poe to run for president will give her a bump in the next polling. The pollsters will surely oblige – they will have to conduct that one critical poll after the SC decision. Mr. Moneybag will gladly commission that next survey to serve as guide on future donations.

    Even Mr. Aquino, the EIC (endorser-in-chief) of Mr. Roxas, admitted the inevitability of a polling bump for Ms. Poe at a recent out-of-town talk.

    Question: To what degree would her support rise in that critical polling? The level of new-found support would be very, very critical. I will explain why. I can even use the numbers in the SC vote that allowed Poe to run, six and nine.

    The two true competitors of Poe in the presidential race – Mr. Binay and Mr. Duterte – should pray for a poll bump that is less than 6 percent. The lower the figure, the better for them. At this stage of the current election cycle, in an election that would be tightly fought, a major breakaway by one candidate, such as a double-digit lead will be very disastrous for the two left behind.

    For the two (Binay and Duterte) to remain really competitive, a poll bump for Poe will have to be low, a figure that can be overcome by a better, superior campaign. If not the odds, would be too nightmarish and terrifying. The election is barely two months away, remember.

    What kind of scenario will be frustrating for Mr. Binay and Mr. Duterte? A poll bump higher than 9 percent, or specifically a 10 percent polling bump for Poe, who is right now tied with Mr. Binay, according to the latest polling. A 40 – 30 percent race with Ms. Poe in the lead will not be good for either Mr. Binay or Mr. Duterte.

    We will have to wait for the real figure with bated breath, or with great anticipation. Will the polling bump be minor, something reflective of positive media treatment of Ms. Poe’s case? Which could be temporary and fleeting? Or, will it be big enough to scare the daylight out of the Binay and Duterte supporters?

    A major polling bump will do wonders for the beneficiary. It is easier to raise campaign funds, it is easier to entice institutional supporters and a major polling lead gets royal treatment from the mainstream press. The media attention the beneficiary gets is even a budget saver. It you can get free and positive media, why spend money on advertising? A so-called “positive feedback loop” goes with a major polling bump.

    With the DQ case settled, the NPC’s internal debates on whether or not to stick with Poe is automatically settled. Only Mark Cojuangco will probably be the heavyweight NPC leader who will remain with Mr. Binay.

    The burden of neutralizing all of these plus factors for Ms. Poe will have to borne by the non-beneficiaries, which on Ms. Poe’s case are Mr. Binay and Mr. Duterte.

    Question: Of the two (Binay and Duterte), who is better suited at overcoming great political odds? The one who fights through oftentimes-heartbreaking political slogs? The veteran at overcoming great odds? Without doubt, this is the expertise of Mr. Binay. He displayed true grit in the 2010 elections and good tactical skills, too, when he came from behind to beat Mr. Roxas in the vice-presidential race. Is Mr. Binay still equipped with the tools he used in his improbable 2010 win? That will be proven by the final results.

    In the current election cycle, Mr. Binay has proven that he can survive the lowest of political moments. Screaming headlines had painted him as a corrupt leader of an equally-corrupt political dynasty, a dynasty that allegedly feasted on the big-ticket public infrastructure projects in Makati City. After dropping in the polls due to the headline-frenzy to knock him out of the race for good, he has bounced back as the main competitor of Ms. Poe.

    In most sections of the media, Mr. Binay is just like Hillary Clinton — there is nothing good to report about her and reports about her should be nefarious and negative. Both have survived. How Mr. Binay would play his end-game against Ms. Poe will be interesting to watch.

    Mr. Duterte, in contrast, has not faced an organized slime machine throughout his career in Davao City. All of the media cower when it comes to Duterte coverage in his turf. Whether he is up to the task of overcoming a 10-point lead in polling in a national election that is just two months away, we do not know. What we know is that he has not faced that kind of challenge.

    But then, to say that Mr. Duterte is helpless against formidable odds does not really reflect on his perceived image – a fighter with killer instincts.

    Personal note. A “ White Paper” says I am on the payola of the Binay campaign. I don’t even know how to react. Protesting too much is useless. But I have to state a fact. I last saw Joey Salgado in 1985, a time I bench pressed 150 pounds of steel with ease. Even if we met on the street, Joey would not recognize the physical wreck that I am today.

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    15 Comments

    1. Take a look at this before considering local survey results.

      Google Predicts Rodrigo Duterte to Win 2016 Election
      http://www.localpulse.net/election/google-predicts-rodrigo-duterte-to-win-2016-election-7986/

      Which survey is more credible? Google was proven correct in its prediction of President Aquino win in 2010 election. Villar, with his long ads in TV has consistently top the local survey during that time. But Google has predicted correctly.

      The digital data of Google via www is devoid of human error. The data collected were random, without pre-determined samples and leading questions. As in the case of hits in videos and musics, choices in Google are top-of-the-mind.

    2. Polls and surveys are nothing they are just being used to influence the minds and hearts of those who don’t have any strong opinion of themselves.Votes are the real thing.
      We cannot and never trust 100% the news on media.

      We should look at the accomplishments /capabilities and jobs done by the candidate and not listen to the mudslinging and dirty tactics being done by the sitting party.
      BSAquino and Roxas had 6 years to prove themselves worthy of leadership but they squandered time/money/resources and corruption has never been more in this last 6 years of government.
      We should not waste even a day for BSAquino to step down and leave forever !

    3. My educated guess is the the rating of Poe before the DQ case which was 40 more or less percent. Very logical answer because those who left her was due to the DQ case. Now that it is over, they will come back in droves. Now the spread is impossible to reach by Binay and Duterte now that is is just 2 months before election. Roxas lost to Binay is primarily due to NPC Cojuanco group that all voted and campaigned for Binay in the home stretch. That is why Roxas cannot believe what happen. Even the Pnoy Aquino sisters contributed money to the Binay group. That is the reason Roxas lost. Roxas was leading in the polls 2 months prior to election. Look at your notes.

    4. The backlash of Poe candidacy is the trampling of our constitution.Many are angry at the way the justices have thrown out the window our constitution which was ratified by the filipino people and the only document that binds us together as a nation.This will boomerang to Poe’s candidacy,plus the negative perception of her persona that has been coming out lately,e.g.. her defensive posturing on the coco levy by Mr. danding Cojuanco,her inexperience of governance,the P400 million advance payment to her given by Cojuangco,her being the alternative candidate of Pnoy(manchurian candidate of the administration),and the list goes on.

    5. Federico Lojo on

      I believe more people will be moved to support a true Filipino and reject an ambitious lady who is motivated more by vengeance than love for the people.

      • That’s the difference between people who support and oppose GP. Those who oppose are arrogant, self righteous, see people who differ from their opinion as STUPID people and have the nerve to call them that, hateful, pessimistic, negative, and biased. These people not in favor say they want good to triumph but everything they say or write is indecent, and hurtful, and unchristian.

        On the contrary, those who support GP only aspire for a leader who can inspire this nation to unite and help the country.

        The choice to elect a president is always given equally for all voters. That is the price of democracy. Every candidate has their strengths and weaknesses. To gain inclusive growth everyone must learn to share the load in nation building.

        If opposition wants to lead everybody because they say they know better, well to lead you must first serve. Otherwise all your opinions are just that …

    6. next survey it will be 9% more for Poe taken both from Duterte and Binay; even from distant Mar Roxas. The survey after the March 20 presidential debates would put Duterte a little ahead of Poe with Binay a close third placer. April will be the game changer; anybody who gets the momentum from hereon will be on top. The first week of May could change the winning combination. Only one thing is sure: its a tough fight between robredo and bongbong for the vice-presidency. If Poe wins, its bongbong; if duterte or binay wins, its robredo.

    7. I dont believe that sws or pulse asia is telling us the truth. The’ve been fooling us since, to tell you exactly it depends on who paid the survey.

    8. Jerrysal Mangaoang on

      Yes, I think a lot of you here in Manila Times are in Binay’s payola. Maawa tayo sa bayan nating Pilipinas…

    9. Francis Dizon on

      My take is exactly the opposite. There will be a medium sized tremor or backlash to the trampling of the Constitution. I can almost see the expression of dismay at the polls. Save from widespread cheating, you will be utterly surprised.
      Our Father in heaven, please deliver us from every EVIL.

      • The trapos are identified with the tools they employ. The still stick to the traditional and obsolete methods (TV ads, surveys, etc.). Have they not learned from President Obama?

        They failed to use the social media. The web is now part of everyday life. The web cross all classes for gadgets are cheaper now compared to 20 years ago.

        So who is winning the game via social media? As President Obama did, it is Mayor Duterte.

        Google Predicts Rodrigo Duterte to Win 2016 Election
        http://www.localpulse.net/election/google-predicts-rodrigo-duterte-to-win-2016-election-7986/

        You don’t have to pay millions in local survey. It just take creativity.