Last of 2 parts
FOR defense, China prepares its more than 5000 kilometers of strategic tunnels, 41 underground air bases, and subway system in every major city for civil and military defense; insures that its extensive air defense system covering its entire east coast is in good working condition; and its anti-submarine monitoring system bounded by the first island chain are ready for action at anytime. As for active defense, China deploys it fleet of nuclear attack submarines to patrol the east coast of the US; ready to retaliate if the US attacks the Chinese or Russian mainland.
After the contingency plan is completed and both offense and defense are readied, correct timing comes next. Since China’s military doctrine states: We will not be the first to attack; but if we are attacked, we will surely counter-attack. This doctrine refers to the strategic level. At the operational and tactical level, China’s doctrine is always to seize the initiative. If the US and its major allies, for instance, conduct a naval blockade against China in the South China Sea or in the Malacca Strait, such a move is considered a declaration of war and an “attack” at the strategic level; hence, China can now launch its counter-attack at the operational and tactical level. The perfect timing is for China to wait for the US alliance to poise itself for an assault on the artificial islands in the South China Sea; then seize the initiative by striking first. With China’s advanced C4ISR, it is easy for China to know the right moment to strike.
The worst-case scenario in the South China Sea now unfolds. China simultaneously targets all adversary bases and aircraft carrier strike groups within 4,000 kilometers from the China mainland. Key US satellites used for C4ISR (command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance) are attacked by ground-based direct ascent anti-satellite missiles and directed energy (laser) weapons. Monitored US nuclear submarines prowling within the first island chain are attacked by swarms of unmanned underwater vehicles, anti-submarine aircraft and helicopters, and land and ship-based anti-submarine missiles. In less than 15 minutes, all air bases with stealth aircraft and advanced model combat aircraft are destroyed and US air cover is reduced to rubble on the ground.
Loss of air bases means loss of air support; and loss of air support means loss of the war itself. But the most dramatic of all would be the fate of the US aircraft carrier strike groups, the pride of US military might—all up in smoke and on their way to the bottom of the sea. These 15 minutes of high-intensity action will usher in the dawn of a new era in warfare; and demonstrate to the world the devastating impact of the revolution in military affairs (or RMA).
The start of the missile attacks by China against US bases in its periphery also signals the start of action by China’s allies Russia and Iran. Russian Iskander M ballistic missiles and Kalibr cruise missiles near its borders and those in Kaliningrad, Crimea, and Belarus attack all the US missile defense system deployments in Poland, Romania, and other NATO allies. Russia also deploys its nuclear attack submarines to patrol the eastern coast of the US, ready to retaliate if the US decides to attack Russia or the Chinese mainland.
Meanwhile, Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, effectively stopping oil tanker traffic in the whole of the Persian Gulf. Iran’s missiles are also ready to strike Saudi and Qatari oil and gas facilities if they make a move.
Impossible scenario! One may tend to exclaim. A worst-case scenario is based on the capabilities of contending parties. So, in order to know if our worst-case scenario is possible or not, we just have to determine if China possesses the capabilities described in our scenario. Does China possess anti-ship ballistic missiles capable of hitting aircraft carriers 4,000 km from the Chinese mainland? Can these same missiles hit fixed targets on land such as air bases hosting stealth aircraft from Korea all the way to Guam? Can China destroy US satellites used for C4ISR with its anti-satellite missiles and other anti-satellite weapons? Can China monitor and destroy US submarines within the first island chain using hydroponic sensors and anti-submarine UUVs, aircraft, helicopters, and missiles?
Does China possess hypersonic glide vehicles in its ballistic missiles that can bring warheads to their targets 4000 kilometers away in less than 15 minutes from launch? Does China possess the C4ISR needed to find and hit their targets with precision beyond the horizon? Are China’s ICBMs capable of hitting any target in the US with relative precision? Are China’s nuclear submarines capable of deploying in the west coast of the US? Are China, Russia, and Iran in a secret alliance as a result of US diplomatic blunders? Will they work together militarily against the US in contingency situations? Are Chinese and Russian nuclear submarines capable of interdicting US supply/logistics lines in the Pacific, Indian, or Atlantic Oceans? Is there a possibility that the US will be confronted in several major fronts simultaneously: South China Sea, Syria, and Strait of Hormuz internationally, and the west and east coasts of the US domestically?
Simply answer yes or no. Then you can decide for yourself if this scenario is impossible or not.