• A worst-case scenario in South China Sea

    7

    VICTOR N. CORPUS

    First of 2 parts
    “TALISMAN Sabre” is the codename of a biennial naval exercise conducted by United States and Australian naval forces that started in 2005. The last exercise was in July 2015 which was joined in by Japan and New Zealand. Basically, the exercise involves the naval blockade of China in the Malacca Strait, Sunda Strait, and Lombok Strait; and assault landings on islands. Another of this series of naval exercises is scheduled for July 2017.

    With the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ruling against China’s claim of sovereignty over those islands in the Spratlys encompassed by China’s “nine-dash line”, and with US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson having declared that China has no right to those artificial islands in the South China Sea and that the US will do something about it; “Talisman Sabre” could readily evolve from a mere military exercise into a major war.

    A naval blockade of the straits in the South China Sea could force China’s economy to grind to a halt. China’s oil and gas supplies from the Middle East and Africa, and trade to the Persian Gulf, Europe, and Africa pass through these straits. This is the main reason why China built those artificial islands, three of which contain runways that are three kilometers long. Those runways can accommodate more combat aircraft and anti-ship ballistic missiles than all of US aircraft carriers combined—and they are unsinkable.

    In the event of a US naval blockade, China can instantly deploy its J-20s, SU-35s, J-11Bs, H6Ks, early-warning, and air-refueling aircraft in those artificial islands with runways; together with medium and intermediate-range anti-ship ballistic missiles (DF21Ds, DF26Cs) and long-range cruise missiles (HN2000s). Newly acquired S-400s air defense system can also be deployed to the islands to defend against adversary missiles and aircraft. The same islands can also host land-based monitoring stations for underwater anti-submarine hydroponic sensors to preclude US nuclear submarines from using the Philippine deep as avenue of approach to launch a first nuclear strike on China’s east coast. These are China’s answer to the US-led “Talisman Sabre”.

    So, what would a worst-case scenario in the South China Sea look like? Here are what China and its key allies can possibly do to counter US “Talisman Sabre” and its “Air-Sea Battle” strategy. It will involve not only China in the South China Sea. It is like: “buy one; take two”.

    China coordinates a contingency plan with Russia and Iran: Russia to send its nuclear submarines to the US east coast, while China’s nuclear submarines deploy to the US west coast to launch a coordinated attack on the US mainland in the event that US launches a first strike on China mainland, or on Russia or Iran. Russia opens a war front in Ukraine and sends troops to defend Syria; while Iran opens a war front in the Middle East by closing the Strait of Hormuz (where NATO countries get some 60 percent and Japan 90 percent of their oil). The US will then be forced to fight in three major war fronts simultaneously, (with two more being added if US attacks the Chinese mainland) and be weak everywhere. “Never hit with both fists in two directions at the same time” is a time-honoured military dictum.

    When the above contingency plan is ironed out, China then prepares its own offense and defense. For offense, China allocates a barrage of medium and intermediate range ballistic missiles to each of the 400 or so US military bases or launching pads (often referred to as “lily-pads”) surrounding China; with priority given to air bases harboring US stealth aircraft and naval bases harboring nuclear submarines. Enough of these missiles (DF21Ds and DF26Cs) are also allocated to US aircraft carrier strike groups operating within 4,000 kilometers of the Chinese mainland. China’s anti-submarine system and anti-satellite system are put on high alert.

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    7 Comments

    1. dating magna-nakaw din on

      The South China Sea would be a very small area for the U.S. and its allies to waste their time and war resources. The international communities continue to call on China to settle the issue consistent to international law. Secondly, Mr. Corpuz concluded that at worst case scenario, RS-28 Sarmat ICBM can literally wipe out France, UK, and some other countries because that is what GOOGLE says. No testing documentations were presented and the article was written by Chinks’ newspaper. Victor Corpuz was very much obsessed about China’s weapons but doesn’t know nor understand the present U.S. Military Doctrine and its weapon systems that few of them are classified, not yet known to the world. Presently, the United States is the world strongest nation, enjoying unique advantages in technology, energy, alliances and partnerships, and demographics.

      Russia, Iran, North Korea, and China are intelligent enough not to seek military confrontation with United States, its allies, and partners. Lastly, there have been two occasions that the U.S. Carrier Strike Group patrolled the South China Sea, passed close to the artificial islands that the Chinks have created, without being challenged by the Chinks Navy. They went on hibernation mode, and why? because Uncle Sam’s Navy is fully loaded, they are big, bad, and ugly, so the chinks went on to hide. However, we must give them a credit for being intelligent enough not to confront the U.S. Navy because it would not be a good bet. On Filipino fishermen and Coast Guards? the Chinks made them target practice.

    2. All of you are fools! warmongers! Trump, Putin and Xi are lining up and warming relations. They are not fools to pull the trigger first for a Nuclear Armageddon. A relative peace in this part of mother earth (west Philippine sea: well it was South China sea before) is important to humanity. What is worrying is Kim of DPRK. This despot will start it all. God forbid.

    3. victor n. corpus on

      NATO and Japan can react, but what can they do? UK, France, and Israel all have nuclear weapons; but if anyone of them use their nuclear arsenal against Russia, the latter can retaliate with its RS-28 SARMAT ICBMS. One SARMAT can literally erase Israel, or UK, or France from the map. That would really be a worst-case scenario!

      Even if the whole of NATO bring their navies to the South China Sea, to include Australia, Canada, and Japan, they can easily be sunk and destroyed by China’s land-based medium and intermediate-range anti-ship ballistic and cruise missiles, and anti-ship supersonic cruise missiles from Chinese submarines, warships, and combat aircraft.

      • Russia and China has nuclear and so does a lot of other international countries. Using nuclear war to threatened the whole world so that the chinks and russians can run amok on unilateral expansion and international thievery or land grab without check is very lame excuse. The civil world must confront this international thieves and send them back to their descendants where they all can roam as barbarian infinitum. The US and NATO has nuclear weapons of its own and its nuclear delivery is even better than these thieves. It is too bad these thieves do not put value on the upcoming destruction of its cities, citizens, and whole nation when threatening the world, because the US and its allies will respond to defend their security. As for the chinks and its missiles, they have threatened full scale war and even nuclear war if the US patrol shows up at their indisputable and inherent claimed south china sea. US have sent multiple patrols will continue to do so. The chinks have yet to pull the trigger on their long doong fake (df) carrier missiles. The whole world is waiting to see if they have the balls. Results would send 2 billion chinks back to meet their descendants where they can roam the mongolian desert and wipe china off the world map.

    4. Numerous articles have been written about China’s modern weapons but they remained to be doubtful about their capabilities. It took so many failed tests before China was able to launch its first submarine and there are no proven data that the quality of their weapons can match those in the traditional superpowers like US and Russia. Much more, their models for aircraft and ships are mere copies of US and Russian designs thru espionage and piracy, but it doesn’t necessarily mean the same performance. Traditionally, China have not been known to project its so-called military might far beyond its borders. Their military personnel e.g. pilots and ships crew doesn’t have enough exposure to international conflicts. If a conventional war will be fought, China’s weapons will not last long.
      Iran doesn’t have the capability to enforce a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. I’m not sure if the Warsaw Pact alliance still exists but the NATO alliance is still strong and formidable.

      • If the US intends to impose a naval blockade on China, why didn’t it do so when the first truckloads of soil was being offloaded to reclaim the now military fortress. Well its easy to say past is past. Why didn’t the UN in making the ruling enjoined majority of western countries to back up the philippines in at least imposing a sanction against china instead they made more economic ties and trades stronger w china. Even obama in his last few months before attending the ASEAN meeting went to china to further cooperation trade and cultural exchanges, then went on to ASEAN to promote the so called freedom of navigation, which china also wants insured for their trade. Why did the world condemned duterte for diffusing tension that can lead to the destruction of the philippines while the world watches in sympathy. There are so many questions easily answered by logic, except for those who wants to see war. Why try to test and doubt China’s military strength when you too are in doubt?! What if its more advanced than what the world thinks it is. Together w Russia it could mean destruction of area surrounding it and the philippines even if the US comes out win in will have the wounds, destruction and deaths just like WW2 . Japan supposedly the opponent got the lion’s share of rehabilitation. WAR is never good, provoking to a war is not being cowardly but being sensical. It only brings destructions and deaths. Then president pnoy who was kiss ass w the US was not even able to get the US to impose the child slap sanction on china. If a war waged thank duterte that china will believe we are not responsible for US actions that could provoke them to war.

    5. The artificial islands built by the chinks can be sunk or obliterated to being useless. Like any other military bases the chinks hope fo hit, destroy, and pulverize with their missiles and bombers, their artificial islands are stationary targets and can also be hit with missiles and bombers the same way, despite their s400 anti access missile defense system.

      It is not concievable that the US will/can fight three war fronts at any one time and alone. The US is align with NATO and has allies in Asia as well. Things will explode into a global war if the chinks, russians, and iranians coordinated to open war fronts to weakend the US.. The US and its allies are not naive to these unilateral aggressive expansions by the chinks and russians and are very well aware of the iranians war motives, and so has plans for these scenarios as well.