That DILG Secretary Mar Roxas and Among Ed Panlilio have jelled is no mystery . They agree on so many things, primarily about the political direction of the country.

And first on the list is to do right thing, no matter how unpopular. The two are not panderers . They don’t pander to whims of voters, they don’t pander to the caprice of the political king makers, they don’t pander to the dictates of the political times.

The problem is this: such a mind-set is a mortal sin in the Philippine political context. And those with a distaste for pandering often pay a price too high for such a distaste for political mendacity .

A little flexibility could have made Among a beloved and unbeatable governor of my province Mar Roxas could have sealed the vice presidency in 2010 , then seamlessly moved on into Malacanang by just adopting a few tricks of political jujitsu.

But they wont bend and dance to the political music . In the view of 99 per cent of Filipino politicians, just to escape the tag ,” losers,” would have been enough incentive for Mar and Among to dance to the political tunes. Standard-issue politicians , after all, would walk several extra miles to win . And abandon their last shred of principle to win elections . Mar and Among wont . They are not made of the pandering stuff.

If you look at the present composition of the people around Vice President Jejomar Binay, his senior advisers primarily, you will notice that it has the same leadership as the defunct Grand Alliance for Democracy, the political coalition formed by the late Vicente “ Teng” Puyat in 1987 to contest the Laban senatorial slate of the late Cory Aquino in the first post martial law legislative election

Were we to remove Mr. Binay from the UNA, the 21st century political coalition built around his presidential dream is essentially the GAD of 1987. In the 1987 senatorial election , the Laban won 22 of the 24 senatorial posts at stake. And the two winners from the GAD side were Juan Ponce Enrile and Joseph Estrada, who are expected to be on the side of Mr. Binay in the 2016 presidential election

Even the senior advisers of Mr. Binay today, the people who counsel him on policy and strategy, were members of the GAD coalition.

In an ideal world, in more mature democracies , a presidential fight between the rigid Mar Roxas and the pragmatic Jojo Binay would make it easy for the voters to vote unanimously for Mar Roxas. In these democracies, there are thresholds of political pragmatism that cannot be breached , and that would work against Jojo Binay.

Here, if we just have betting sites such as the Intrade , we will have an idea on where the bets would be - on Mr. Binay’s side and with the bets heavily against Mar Roxas. And the question “ how can this be” will not be even asked. Most Filipinos assume that the 2016 presidential contest is over and Mr. Binay will be the landslide winner.

How voters form their sense of choice in the country cannot be explained by sophisticated political theories . If there is one place in the planet where voters’ sentiment defy all the known explanations of political science, this is the Philippines . The most learned of punditry will also suffer from an epic fail in looking for a detailed take on Mr. Binay’s political ascendancy.

The secret of Mr. Binay – it is not even a secret – can be gleaned from an exchange between Bart and Homer Simpson.

Bart Simpson: Dad, why is being popular so important?

Homer Simpson: Son, it is the most important thing in the world.

Right now, and unless political sentiments shift in the period leading to 2016, Jojo Binay would be the most likely Philippine president . He is popular, the most popular political figure in the country, where popularity is the exclusive explanation of voting sentiment .

Is it too late for Mar Roxas? Can’t he play catch up with Jojo Binay?

If the Cebu capitol standoff were used as gauge on whether Mar Roxas can reverse Mr. Binay’s honeymoon with ordinary Filipinos, the answer is this: people don’t think so.

The triumvirate of the UNA leadership – Binay, Enrile, Estrada – immediately flew to Cebu to cast their lot with Governor Gwen Garcia, who has been holding out at the capitol after a DILG suspension order for grave abuse of authority .

The UNA has made a heroine out of Garcia – deftly exploiting Cebuano sentiment and the popular distaste for an overbearing central authority . Of course, this is questionable reaction.

Garcia – in a nation of rules – should have accepted the suspension order. The law is the law no matter how harsh it is.

Mar Roxas won’t bend. He wants the suspension order enforced and the defiance stopped.

The Emo Guys – Binay, Enrile and Estrada – may be the ones generating public goodwill . Mar Roxas, the stern enforcer of what is legal, may end up the villain in the standoff episode . And he will pay a heavy political price for standing for what is right.

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