By the time this sees print, the US electorate would have either elected a new president, or reelected the incumbent one. Under normal circumstances, the results would be known before the day is done.

Unfortunately, this particular election is anything but normal. Both the Republicans and the Democrats agree that the stakes are higher now, compared to any time in the recent past. Whether true or not, both camps have waged not only the fiercest fight in recent memory, but also one of the most vicious.

Mudslinging and muckraking has been apparent for the past few months, even before it became clear who the challenger would be to the incumbent. American-style dirty politics then unfolded during the campaign period, to the chagrin of voters who wanted nothing more than an intelligent discussion of the issues near and dear to their hearts.

By all accounts, the mano-a-mano between President Barack Obama and former Massachusetts governot Mitt Romney has been the tightest presidential battle in decades.

Survey after survey had indicated that the American people were split, practically down the middle.

In the end, there can only be one victor, and it is hoped that the loser admit defeat gracefully, and the winner accept his win magnanimously.

No matter how tight the popular vote, it will not make a difference because unlike the Philippines, the American people do not directly vote for their president. Instead, every voter in every state casts his or her vote, and the candidate winning the most number of votes receives all the electoral college votes of that state. This concept is completely foreign to Filipinos. The numerous calls to dispense with the electoral college have been for naught.

Maybe the electoral college system endures because it guarantees against the marginalization of states with small populations. For if a state with small populations—like Wyoming which has the smallest population (563,626 in the latest, the 2010 census)— did not have their minimum of three electors in the presidential electoral college—they are likely to be counted for nothing. Presidential candidates would concentrate only on getting elected by the voters in the most populous states—California, Texas, New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Indiana, Arizona and Tennessee, whose total combined population is more than 200 million of the USA’s 308.7 million people in the 50 states plus Washington, DC.

The electoral college vote is expected to result in a definitive win for one candidate. Some see Obama winning with a minimum of 270 votes.

The Romney camp, however, stands by their claim that the surveys were skewed against them and the poll results were wrong.
        
Lessons for Filipinos
There are many lessons to be learned from the US presidential campaign.

Both camps had used the various survey results to show that they were headed for a sure win. The odd thing was that supposedly respectable and independent companies which conducted surveys frequently came out with conflicting results.

Here in the Philippines, there are only two survey firms that are deemed to be totally credible—Pulse Asia and the Social Weather Stations. Any other firm that releases survey results during election periods are suspected of favoring candidates who paid for the holding of the surveys.

The largest media organizations in the US have been referencing almost all the surveys, even when the results do not tally. Among the most well known names conducting their own surveys are the Wall Street Journal, CNN and Reuters, and their differing results can be maddening.

Florida is a case in point. Some surveys say that this battleground state belongs to Romney. Other surveys say that Obama has overtaken his challenger, and will take Florida’s 29 electoral votes. Because no two survey results are alike, it becomes difficult to make intelligent projections and report the same in media without being accused of bias.

All parties respect the Gallup poll however. It’s results up to the even of the voting placed Obama and Romney in a tie.

Other pollsters do not hide their leanings. Organizations like Rasmussen and Fox News lean towards the Republican side, and therefore reported results favorable to Romney. Their credibility would, therefore, be shot if the final results are far different from what they have been reporting and disseminating to media throughout the campaign period. But so would the credibility of the mainstream US media that have been observed by neutral observers and European media to have been seriously biased for Obama.

Very clearly, the only way Romney can reverse the survey findings is to win the way Harry Truman won against Thomas Dewey in 1948, via a stunning upset. Back then, most newspapers were sure that Dewey would win, and one broadsheet—the Chicago Tribune—even came out with a banner headline “Dewey defeats Truman” that Truman held up for the world to see. Even the New York Times had wrongly declared that Dewey’s election as president was a foregone conclusion.

This cautionary tale must be in the minds of all publishers and editors of print, broadcast and electronic media in reporting the news. The US elections will not be officially over until the last vote is counted.