OUR page 1 and 2 report today is the East Asia and South Asia STRATFOR forecast for 2013.

The subjects being analyzed and discussed are mainly geopolitics, the political economy and the stability of the key countries in those regions. There is no forecast of what the weather will be—and how climate change will affect these regions.

In the United States on Friday, a draft of the long awaited National Climate Assessment report was released.

The 1000-page report gives a dire picture of what Americans will suffer this year and beyond because of climate change.

It says that by the end of the 21st century, in America climate change is expected to result in increased risk of asthma and other public health emergencies, widespread power blackouts, mass transit shutdowns, and maybe food shortages.

Americans in the future are seen to spend at least 25 days a year sweltering in temperatures above 38 degrees Celsius. For climate change now is going to make the USA a hotter, drier, and more disaster-prone place.

“Proactively preparing for climate change can reduce impacts, while also facilitating a more rapid and efficient response to changes as they happen,” said Katharine Jacobs, the director of the National Climate Assessment.

American NGOs campaigning to see their government take the problems being caused by climate change more seriously have used the occasion of the draft report’s release to remind the US president that he had been remiss in 2009.

“The draft assessment offers a perfect opportunity for President Obama at the outset of his second term,” said Lou Leonard, director of the climate change program for the World Wildlife Fund. “When a similar report was released in 2009, the Administration largely swept it under the rug. This time, the President should use it to kick-start a national conversation on climate change.”

The report says that climate change will make America hotter, drier and more disaster-prone

Correlation between weather and climate change
It makes clear that there is a correlation between horrible weather events and climate change.

This report is the first complete picture ever of the effects in real time of climate change on life in the United States what the most likely consequences are in the the future.

NCA—National Climate Assessment—is formed by representatives of about a dozen government agencies and cabinet departments, as well as private sector institutions. It released previous assessments in 2000 and 2009.

More than 300 government scientists and outside experts worked on the report. Their product is definitely blames human beings for causing the kind of destructive climate change we are suffering from now.

“Climate change is already affecting the American people,” the draft report says. “Certain types of weather events have become more frequent and/or intense including heat waves, heavy downpours and in some regions floods and drought. Sea level is rising, oceans are becoming more acidic, and glaciers and Arctic sea ice are melting.”

The report is not expected to be made government policy until 2014. When it has been adopted, it will guide federal, state and city governments in America in making long-term plans.

Environmental groups hoped the report would give President Barack Obama the scientific evidence to push for measures that would slow the rate of climate change.

The report clearly says that that President Obama took very inadequate measures to reduce carbon emissions and prevent the most severe consequences of climate change.

“As climate change and its impacts are becoming more prevalent, Americans face choices,” the report said. “Beyond the next few decades, the amount of climate change will still largely be determined by the choices society makes about emissions. Lower emissions mean less future warming and less severe impacts. Higher emissions would mean more warming and more severe impacts.”

The report states that no place in America has gone untouched by climate change.

The most extreme changes will be in Alaska. There “average temperatures have increased more than twice as fast as the rest of the country,” the draft report sas. “Of all the climate-related changes in the US, the rapid decline of Arctic sea ice cover in the last decade may be the most striking of all.”

Other regions will face different extreme weather events. The US northeast is at risk of coastal flooding because of sea-level rises and storm surges, as well as river flooding, because of an increase in heavy downpours.

“The northeast has experienced a greater increase in extreme precipitation over the past few decades than any other region in the US,” the report said. Between 1958 and 2010, the northeast saw a 74 percent increase in heavy downpours.

The midwest was projected to enjoy a longer growing season – but also an increased risk of extreme events like the 2012 drought. By mid-century, the combination of temperature increases and heavy rainfall or drought was expected to pull down yields of major US food crops. This will threaten both US and global food security.

Philippines one of the most vulnerable
In the Philippines, we should—as WWF-Philippines does— ask ourselves “Are we up to the challenge of climate change?”

Says WWF: “The Philippines is considered as one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change. With impacts ranging from extreme weather events and periodic inundation to droughts and food scarcity, climate change has been a constant reality that many Filipinos have had to face. Most affected are those living in coastal communities and the lower rung urban communities that lack awareness on proper disaster preparedness measures to take. As it is, climate change impacts have not only intensified from an imbalanced natural eco-system, but every onslaught has become unpredictable.”