HONG KONG—Hong Kong will vote next week to elect a new legislature, with most analysts describing the poll as a referendum on Chinese rule and a test of the strength of the democracy movement.

The vote follows one of the most politically turbulent periods in the former British colony since it returned to Chinese rule in 1997, culminating on July 1 when half a million people marched to demand the right to elect the territory’s highest representative, the chief executive.

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