THE stock market is likely to sustain its bull run in the latter half of the year amid more favorable macroeconomic conditions, according to a report by the First Metro Investments Corp. (FMIC) and the University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P).
FMIC and UA&P, in their latest joint report released on Thursday, said market sentiment will be buoyed by the expected easing of
inflation to below 2 percent beginning this month, coupled with further interest rate cuts, and the boost in government spending.
It added that its crawl back to the 8,400 level last month raised the likelihood of the bull run’s resumption.
“The latter’s 8.9 percent growth in May (excluding interest payments) a month after the … 2019 budget approval and its record of over 20 percent expansion in infrastructure spending for a 13-month period in 2017-2018 provide evidence of [government’s] ability to ramp up spending for the rest of 2019,” the report read, adding that such factors will help buoy corporate earnings.
“Once PSEi (Philippine Stock Exchange index) breaches definitely the resistance level of 8,200, coupled with large volume, its upward trend should resume only in the latter half of the [second half] amidst MSCI rebalancing in August,” it added.
As of Thursday, the PSEi has already risen by 8.13 percent to 8,098.16 with growth attributed to the dovish tone from the Federal Reserve coupled with positive signals on the US-China trade talks.
The benchmark index first entered the bull market on July 15, having risen by 22.2 percent, slipped out, and clawed back to the said territory for the second time on July 25.
As of Thursday, PSEi was only up by 18.4 percent from its lowest level of 6,843.83 in November.