The most important macroeconomic megatrend that I have worked with since years, I call the “middle class beats high-tech.” The thinking behind this phrase is that high-tech companies are impressive, enormous, disruptive etc., though in global importance, they still don’t beat the macroeconomic importance of the growth of the global middle class.
The growth in the global middle class has lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty, and the same will happen for hundreds of million more in the coming years. In many ways, this is a fantastic story, though in front of investors, this wave means that consumers move from basic spending toward purchasing consumer goods that don’t belong to the high-end products. Very often, I have experienced that the tech story sounds more fancy, and the investors rush toward that direction. But my primary scenario is that the explosive growth in the global middle class will continue. I expect the explosion to remain so huge that it will continue throughout the “Roaring Twenties,” and therefore, is also one of the most important megatrends for the global economy, investors and corporations.