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Moody’s further trims PH growth estimate to 2.5%


MOODY’S Investor Service further adjusted its growth forecast for the Philippine economy this year because of the impact of the enhanced community quarantine to domestic demand.

“For the Philippines, we expect a sharp slowdown in growth this year, with real GDP (gross domestic product) growth decelerating to 2.5 percent in 2020, which incorporates the curtailment of domestic demand from the imposition of the ‘enhanced community quarantine’ on the entire northern island of Luzon,” it said in a report released on Wednesday.

The credit ratings agency’s latest outlook is a downward revision from the previous GDP projection of 5.4 percent. If correct, it would settle below the 6.5- to 7.5-percent 2020 growth target of the government, and would be the slowest since the 1.1-percent expansion in 2009.

It is also lower than the World Bank’s 3 percent, Fitch Solutions’ 4.0 percent, S&P Global Ratings’ 4.2 percent, Moody’s Investors Service and Union Bank of the Philippines’ 5.4 percent, ING Bank Manila’s 5.6 percent, and Rizal Commercial Banking Corp.’s below 6.0 percent.

It is higher than the Asian Development Bank’s 2 percent and ANZ Research’s 1.2 percent and Nomura’s 1.6 percent.


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