(Continued from April 7, 2020)

Thirdly, although the range of testing and the time of fatality rate data collection do not change the risk of a disease, they can affect the judgment about the risk of the disease and the public health situation in general. Since most cases of novel coronavirus infection present mild or no symptoms, it is extremely difficult to detect all cases of infection if no large-scale surveillance testing is implemented. Patients with more serious symptoms, on the other hand, are more likely to seek medical help, a tendency that would make the calculated fatality rate higher than it really is. Ultimately, considering the progression of an outbreak, an accurate calculation of fatality rate is only possible after the epidemic. A study published in The Lancet by Huazhong University of Science and Technology with other organizations shows that the average duration from the onset of COVID-19 to the start of ICU care is 16 days, and that patient death typically happens after 7 days in the ICU. The fatality rate could be relatively low in the early outbreak and increase as the epidemic progresses. On 9 March, 19 new cases of COVID-19 were confirmed in Mainland China, a number that has remained low for some time, but there remain 4794 critical cases. The fatality rate of COVID-19 may still increase as time goes by.

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