Experts from the University of the Philippines said while the rate of transmission of the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) has stabilized, there is still a “significant” community transmission in the country.
The number of new cases reported daily has jumped recently to as high as 500 after a long period of tapering off.
The UP experts released their findings just days before the government decides whether Metro Manila, Cebu and other parts of the country could shift to a more relaxed modified general community quarantine (MGCQ), remain under general community quarantine (GCQ) or revert to a stricter modified enhanced community quarantine (MECQ).
Malacañang shared the UP group’s concern, with Palace spokesman Harry Roque Jr. saying the spike in fresh confirmed Covid-19 cases “does not inspire the relaxation” of quarantine protocols in the country.
President Rodrigo Duterte is scheduled to announce on Monday what kind of quarantine will be enforced in Metro Manila and other areas where the risk of catching the virus remains alarming.
Professor Ranjit Rye, associate professor of the UP Department of Political Science and a research fellow of Octa Research, a multi-disciplinary research team composed of UP faculty and researchers, said the virus is still highly contagious and many people would still be infected if the government will stop enforcing current measures.
“Community transmission is still there, and we still have lots to do to manage the Covid-19 situation in the country,” Rye told reporters in a virtual media forum.
Dr. Guido David from the UP Institute of Mathematics, another Octa Research Fellow, said the country now has an epidemic “reproduction number” of 1.2, based on numbers from April to June.
This means that an infected individual can spread the virus to 1.2 people.
“The rate of infection has stabilized, and although there are still infections, it’s not that many,” David said.
The reproduction number, or RØ, pronounced “R-naught,” is used to measure the transmission potential of the disease by determining the average number of secondary infections produced by a typical case of an infection.
David said that if the reproduction number is higher than 1, it means that the pandemic is spreading, and if it is less than one, the epidemic curve is flattening.
“There are many factors that affect infection rate, such as mobility, proximity, and if people do not wear [face] masks, they are likely to infect more people),” David said.
He said they were forecasting 40,000 Covid-19 cases in the country by June 30 if the current reproduction number stands.
He also noted that the Covid-19 cases in the country were mostly mild, but the number of asymptomatic cases was underreported because of lack of testing.
Rye urged the government to study the numbers and implement appropriate and timely responses, such as increasing targeted testing and contact tracing, while urging people to act responsibly by practicing physical distancing and good hygiene and wearing face masks.
“We have a big role in the reduction of the rate of transmission in the country,” Rye said.
Roque said Duterte was to meet with the Inter-Agency Task Force for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases (IATF-EID) in Davao City on Thursday but decided to move the meeting to Monday in Manila.
He said the IATF-EID already has recommendations on the reclassification of quarantines and warned the public to stop sharing any document from the task force that might be leaked anew on social media.
Last Tuesday, the Palace said the return to MECQ was possible in areas with a rising number of Covid-19 cases.
Aside from Metro Manila, Pangasinan, Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, Calabarzon, Central Visayas, Zamboanga City, Davao City, Albay, Cebu City and Mandaue are under GCQ until June 15.
The rest of the country is under MGCQ, the lowest level.
Roque said the Department of the Interior and Local Government was already coordinating with the different local government units regarding their classification so they could appeal or prepare before Monday.
As of Wednesday, the Philippines has 23,732 Covid-19 cases. This includes 1,027 deaths and 4,895 recoveries.