World Bank’s not-so-rosy outlook

Okay, “grim” may be too strong a word, but the latest pile of prophecy — about 234 pages’ worth — from the World Bank (WB), its “Global Economic Prospects 2021” report released about a week ago, presents anything but an enthusiastic view of the economy over the next two years. Some of its conclusions may be debatable, but it makes a number of important points that policymakers ought to consider before making promises of a spectacular rebound from last year’s economic collapse.

As with all such reports, the specific numbers the WB forecasts should probably be taken with a grain of salt, which is something the report’s authors acknowledge themselves, pointing out that the figures are subject to frequent adjustment. For what it’s worth, the WB estimates that full-year 2020 global gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 4.3 percent (the report’s data cutoff was December 18), would recover and grow by 4.0 percent this year, then slow a bit to 3.8 percent in 2022. For the East Asia-Pacific region, overall growth — driven by China — is expected to have been 0.9 percent in 2020, and is forecast to reach 7.4 percent in 2021 and 5.2 percent in 2022. For the Philippines, the WB expects a GDP contraction of 8.1 percent in 2020, and growth of 5.9 percent and 6.0 percent in 2021 and 2022, respectively.