Forecasting in uncertain times

One senior executive of an organization pronounced during a planning session I was involved in that “one assumption for our 2021 plan is that we can have face-to-face engagements with consumers and customers by the fourth quarter.” This assumption was plugged into the 2021 financial budget.

Last month, news about a more contagious strain of Covid-19 in the United Kingdom broke out. In mid-January, the Philippines confirmed its first case of this strain. This came after several countries confirmed theirs and started banning travelers from the UK and other affected nations to contain the Covid-19 variant’s spread.