Lessons from Afghanistan

LEARNING from someone else's mistakes is better than learning from one's own to avoid the latter's consequences. Those in charge of risk and crisis management in our government should observe closely what's happening in Afghanistan and anticipate the "butterfly effect." In chaos theory, it's the phenomenon whereby a minute localized change in a complex system can have large effects elsewhere.

Afghanistan, a strategic geopolitical crossroad, has been a training ground for jihadists of various stripes. The return of the Taliban will have reverberating effects in other parts of the world. Terrorism comes to mind. I've been there, seen that and done some. For crisis managers, the butterfly effect is in play.