Counterfactual thinking in investing

COUNTERFACTUAL thinking is a psychological concept involving our human tendency to create possible alternatives to life events that have already happened. These are our "what-if's" thoughts. Upward counterfactuals are those positive what ifs outcomes. Downward counterfactuals are those that focus on the worse outcomes than what happened. Both affects our behavior and emotions.

A 1995 study by Medyec, Madey and Gllovich entitled "When less is more: Counterfactual thinking and satisfaction among Olympic medalists" published in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology found that while gold medalists are happiest about their winnings, bronze medalists are consistently happier than silver medalists. Why is that? According to the study, the silver medalists created a counterfactual based on not having won gold, focusing on upward counterfactual and thinking about how close they came to be first place. These induced feelings of frustration. The bronze medalist on the other hand focused on the downward counterfactuals. They ended up with an award rather versus ending up with nothing at all.