THE Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) remains optimistic that the country's inflation rate will fall despite higher domestic oil prices.

"So, we still see inflation going down by late this year until next year," Zeno Ronald Abenoja, managing director of the central bank's Department of Economic Research, said during a briefing on Thursday.

This view, he said, is based on the BSP's ongoing monitoring of oil price patterns.

"While the international oil prices remain elevated... we see that the futures prices and some analysts actually anticipate a decline in the oil prices over the near to medium term," Abenoja noted.

He explained that the reason for this is that oil supply may change when demand rises in advanced economies as well as emerging markets that are opening up, putting downward pressure on domestic inflation.

At the same time, the monetary authorities have seen non-monetary measures to resolve supply limits on food commodities are gaining pace.

"And we have seen meat inflation generally slowing down and the same as for other food commodities. So again, this could also help inflation then downwards over the near to medium term," the central bank official pointed out.

Higher domestic oil costs and a weaker peso pushed the country's headline inflation rate to as high as 5.3 percent last month, according to the BSP, but low rice and meat prices could lower consumer price rise to as low as 4.5 percent.

The projection compared to a 4.8 percent growth in September and a 2.5 percent increase a year ago. Official October inflation data will be released today, Friday, by the Philippine Statistics Authority.

The Bangko Sentral said in a separate statement that recent inflation figures indicate that non-monetary government actions to boost domestic supply of major food products have been successful in reducing inflationary pressures.

"The domestic prices of key agricultural commodities such as fruits, fish, and pork as recorded in the consumer price index (CPI) data have declined in recent months. With continued implementation of non-monetary supply-side measures, the BSP expects ongoing price pressures to dissipate further in the coming months," BSP Governor Benjamin Diokno was quoted as saying.

The recent increase in inflation, the central bank noted, may be attributed mostly to higher prices of a small number of CPI basket goods as a result of supply-side factors that are considered temporary.