Failure is the only option

MY colleague Marlen Ronquillo's column on Wednesday, June 8 ("Geology-challenged pols: Curb your BNPP enthusiasm"), sketched out the main geological arguments against resurrecting the zombie Bataan Nuclear Power Plant (BNPP). These are that it is located on the slope of an at least hypothetically active volcano (Mount Natib), lies within potential striking distance of one definitely active volcano (Mount Pinatubo) and is in close proximity to a significant earthquake fault (Lubao Fault).

As I said in last week's column on this topic, I do not think the "geological risk" argument against the BNPP is the strongest one there is, though it is not entirely invalid. There are credible arguments in both directions; i.e., that the risk is significant, or that it is not significant. Thus, the only conclusion that can be drawn with certainty at this point is that the risk is not zero, but that it is also undefined. Geologic events — earthquakes, volcanic eruptions — are notoriously unpredictable, and so "uncertain but not zero" might be the best anyone can do.