Putin's limited options

THE queues are very long at the Russian border with neighboring countries, not of tourists but of Russian citizens fleeing their homeland. They are seeking to escape the order of Vladimir Putin to draft all those with previous military service to fight in his "special military operations" in Ukraine. The hasty and sloppy manner in which the draft has been implemented has resulted in those without military service being called to serve. Thus, the long queues involve most Russians of military draft age fleeing the country.The foregoing development does not augur well for Putin's special military operations, recalling analogous events in recent times. The resistance to the war comes at a very early stage in Putin's invasion of Ukraine. In the case of the Afghan War from 1979-1989, the resistance to the draft in the Soviet Union did not emerge until late in the war when the body bags kept streaming home. In the case of the United States, the demonstrations against the war in Vietnam did not appear until after the Tet Offensive by the Vietminh in 1968. In both wars, the citizens of the Soviet Union and the United States, at least in the early years of the war, trusted the words of their rulers about the necessity of fighting these wars. Putin's war will become even more unpopular once the body bags of those drafted are shipped home. What is more, there is a high probability that these new draftees will incur heavy casualties.

The detritus of war are also not auspicious for Putin. Operational tanks, armored vehicles and intact arms depots have been captured by the Ukrainians. This indicates that the Russian troops, the elite of their military, had fled in panic-stricken retreat. This is a complete collapse of discipline amid widespread demoralization. Soldiers are told to disable weapons that they cannot save when they retreat. This is not a case of "re-grouping" as euphemistically termed by the controlled Russian media. These intact weapons will now be used by the Ukrainians against the Russians.