WESTERN sanctions have hit Russia. But after a year of sanctions aimed at degrading Moscow's war chest, economic life for ordinary Russians does not look all that different than it did before the invasion of Ukraine.
There is no mass unemployment, no plunging currency, no lines in front of failing banks. The assortment at the supermarket is little changed, with international brands still available or local substitutes taking their place.
Crowds might have thinned at some Moscow malls, but not drastically. Some foreign companies like McDonald's and Starbucks have been taken over by local owners who slapped different names on essentially the same menu.
Russia's economy has weathered the West's unprecedented economic sanctions far better than expected. But with restrictions finally tightening on the Kremlin's chief moneymaker — oil — the months ahead will be an even tougher test of President Vladimir Putin's fortress economy.
Economists say sanctions on Russian fossil fuels only now taking full effect should eat into earnings that fund the military's attacks on Ukraine.
But other economists say the Kremlin has significant reserves of money that have not been hit by sanctions, while links to new trade partners in Asia have quickly taken shape. They say Russia is not likely to run out of money this year but instead will face a slow slide into years of economic stagnation.
"It will have enough money under any kind of reasonable scenario," Chris Weafer, chief executive officer (CEO) and Russian economy analyst at the consulting firm Macro-Advisory, said in a recent online discussion by bne IntelliNews.
Russia will keep bringing in oil income, even at lower prices, so "there is no pressure on the Kremlin today to end this conflict because of economic pressures," he said.
As the economy teeters, what everyday Russians can buy has stayed remarkably the same.
Apple has stopped selling products in Russia, but Wildberries, the country's biggest online retailer, offers the iPhone 14 for about the same price as in Europe. Online retailer Svyaznoy lists Apple AirPods Pro.
Furniture and home goods remaining after Ikea exited Russia are being sold off on the Yandex website. Nespresso coffee capsules have run short after Swiss-based Nestlé stopped shipping them, but knockoffs are available.
Labels on cans of Budweiser and Leffe beer on sale in Moscow indicate they were brewed by ABInBev's local partner. Coke bottled in Poland is still available.
ABInBev says it is no longer getting money from the venture, and that Leffe production has been halted.
Western automakers like Renault, Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz, have halted production, with sales plunging 63 percent and local entities taking over some factories and bidding for others.
Foreign cars are still available but far fewer of them and for higher prices, said Andrei Olkhovsky, CEO of Avtodom, which has 36 dealerships in Moscow, St. Petersburg and Krasnodar.
"Shipments of the Porsche brand, as for those of other manufacturers, aren't possible through official channels," he said.
While 191 foreign companies have left Russia and 1,169 are working to do so, some 1,223 are staying and 496 are taking a wait-and-see approach, according to the Kyiv School of Economics.
Companies are facing public pressure from Kyiv and Washington, but some have found it is not easy to line up a Russian buyer or say they are selling essentials.
Moscow residents, meanwhile, have downplayed the impact of sanctions.
"Maybe it hasn't affected me yet," 63-year-old retiree Alexander Yeryomenko said. "I think that we will endure everything."
"We have had even worse periods of time in history, and we coped," said 33-year-old Dmitry who refused to give his last name.
One big reason for Russia's resilience: record fossil fuel earnings of $325 billion last year as prices spiked. The surging costs stemmed from fears that the war would mean a severe loss of energy.
That revenue pushed the country into a record trade surplus — meaning what Russia earned from sales to other countries far outweighed its purchases abroad.
The boon helped bolster the ruble after a temporary post-invasion crash and provided cash for government spending on pensions, salaries and the military.
The Kremlin has taken steps to sanction-proof the economy after facing some penalties for annexing Ukraine's Crimea Peninsula in 2014. Companies began sourcing parts and food at home, and the government built up huge piles of cash from selling oil and natural gas. About half of that money has been frozen, however, because it was held overseas.
Those measures helped blunt predictions of a 11-percent to 15-percent collapse in economic output, Russia's statistics agency said.